Nightmare

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$779.58

1,114 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $708.71 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.78%

309 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

17 openings · below min

7 days

98.33%±20.67258 openings

30 days

93.78%±18.88309 openings

since tracking started

93.78%±18.88309 openings

-0.5%74.5%149.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	17	68.52%±80.5	—	odds
7d	258	98.33%±20.7	+0.7σ	odds
30d	309	93.78%±18.9	+0.3σ	odds
All	309	93.78%±18.9	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 400	$12.8K 18,291 coins	4.5%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 222	$7,455 10,650 coins	4.7%	1	1.4	0.72×
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$6,188 8,840 coins	7.0%	1	2.5	0.40×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$5,023 7,175 coins	12.8%	5	5.6	0.90×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 333	$4,088 5,840 coins	1.7%	2	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 19	$2,177 3,110 coins	16.0%	24	16.1	1.49×
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$2,100 3,000 coins	10.4%	12	10.8	1.11×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 15	$1,639 2,341 coins	15.0%	21	20.1	1.05×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 167	$1,576 2,251 coins	1.3%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 83	$1,438 2,054 coins	2.4%	2	3.7	0.54×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33	$1,170 1,672 coins	5.0%	8	9.3	0.86×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$1,059 1,513 coins	1.5%	4	3.1	1.29×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$1,047 1,495 coins	5.9%	13	12.4	1.05×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 21	$873 1,247 coins	5.9%	14	14.8	0.94×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 15	$630 900 coins	5.9%	17	20.4	0.83×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	66	61.8	1.07×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	46	61.8	0.74×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	71	61.8	1.15×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertD O P E$7951,136 coins$12.8K18,291 coins16.10x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$7801,114 coins$7,45510,650 coins9.56x1d

AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$7951,136 coins$6,6059,435 coins8.30x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$7951,136 coins$5,1707,385 coins6.50x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$7951,136 coins$5,1707,385 coins6.50x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covertR3p csgoroll.com$7951,136 coins$5,1707,385 coins6.50x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$7951,136 coins$5,1707,385 coins6.50x6d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$7801,114 coins$5,0237,175 coins6.44x1d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7951,136 coins$4,0885,840 coins5.14x4d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$7951,136 coins$4,0885,840 coins5.14x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$7801,114 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$7801,114 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7801,114 coins$630900 coins0.81x1h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Kickerrrrrrrr$7801,114 coins$2,1773,110 coins2.79x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHirschbaer$7801,114 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$7801,114 coins$2,1773,110 coins2.79x4h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$7801,114 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x9h

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$7801,114 coins$8731,247 coins1.12x10h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHirschbaer$7801,114 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x12h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$7801,114 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$780	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$780	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$795	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.7%remarkable 0.3%consumer 60.0%best hit $12.8K (16.10x)