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The One

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$45.27
64.67 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $41.16 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.64%
14.2K openings, odds method
Variance
252.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 431
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
98.91%±66.492,191 openings
7 days
90.02%±28.9711.4K openings
30 days
86.64%±25.9414.2K openings
since tracking started
86.64%±25.9414.2K openings
32.0%99.0%166.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,19198.91%±66.5+0.2σodds
7d11.4K90.02%±29.0−0.1σodds
30d14.2K86.64%±25.9−0.3σodds
All14.2K86.64%±25.9−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 1,000,000$210K 300,000 coins0.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) + 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 333,333$140K 200,000 coins1.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 200,000$98K 140,000 coins1.2%00.1—
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100,000$63.7K 90,950 coins1.5%00.1—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50,000$30.1K 42,950 coins1.5%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 33,333$27.5K 39,250 coins2.0%00.4—
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 20,000$21.8K 31,155 coins2.6%10.7—
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 10,000$20.8K 29,650 coins5.0%11.40.70×
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 3,333$11.5K 16,375 coins8.4%34.30.70×
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$10.7K 15,300 coins13.0%107.11.41×
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 1,667$6,780 9,685 coins9.9%78.50.82×
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,429$6,269 8,955 coins10.7%109.91.01×
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$6,188 8,840 coins12.0%1211.41.06×
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,111$4,946 7,065 coins10.8%1512.81.17×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,019$3,024 4,320 coins7.2%1813.91.29×
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 1,000$1,679 2,398 coins4.1%1114.20.77×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$1,000 1,428 coins2.4%714.20.49×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 1,000$957 1,367 coins2.3%1014.20.70×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$888 1,269 coins2.2%1714.21.20×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000$636 909 coins1.5%1314.20.92×
MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer24.0%$0.04 0.06 coins0.0%3,3673407.50.99×
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.03 0.05 coins0.0%3,6363549.51.02×
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.03 0.04 coins0.0%3,5343549.51.00×
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%3,5263549.50.99×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableKickerrrrrrrr$45.2764.67 coins$21.8K31,155 coins481.8x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$45.2764.67 coins$20.8K29,650 coins458.5x
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$45.2764.67 coins$20.8K29,650 coins458.5x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$45.2764.67 coins$11.5K16,375 coins253.2x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covertm1dde$45.2764.67 coins$11.5K16,375 coins253.2x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · coverti want to cry$46.2666.09 coins$11.5K16,375 coins247.8x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$46.2666.09 coins$11.5K16,375 coins247.8x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$45.2764.67 coins$10.7K15,300 coins236.6x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$45.2764.67 coins$10.7K15,300 coins236.6x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$45.2764.67 coins$10.7K15,300 coins236.6x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.030.04 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$45.2764.67 coins$0.030.04 coins0.00x
MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x
MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$45.2764.67 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$45.2764.67 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC$45.2790.91%24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$45.2790.90%24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$46.2690.91%24
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%remarkable 0.1%covert 0.8%consumer 99.0%best hit $21.8K (481.8x)