3dmax team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$15.49
Advertised RTP
93.96%
EV $14.56 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.70%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/3dmax_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $15.49 | 93.96% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $15.57 | 93.48% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.57 | 95.13% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%contraband 0.0%covert 3.8%legendary 0.0%classified 44.5%Covert 0.2%sunny 0.0%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%rare 2.4%red 4.7%Ancient 2.4%pink 13.1%restricted 10.1%Mythical 9.2%Classified 4.9%violet 4.4%best hit —