Astralis team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$7.23
Advertised RTP
93.91%
EV $6.79 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.34%
39 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 39 openings and 7.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/astralis_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.23 | 93.91% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.47 | 90.89% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.47 | 93.17% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%classified 36.8%sunny 0.0%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.4%rare 1.8%restricted 17.9%red 0.7%pink 4.9%#d32ee6 6.2%blue 5.5%violet 18.4%#4b69ff 3.8%#8847ff 2.9%best hit —