Chainsawman
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$3.46
Advertised RTP
93.80%
EV $3.25 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.81%
214 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 214 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/chainsawman/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.80%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.46 | 93.80% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.55 | 91.42% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.55 | 93.48% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert knife 0.0%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.3%gold 0.0%restricted 40.3%pink 12.2%Legendary 1.4%Mythical 11.8%classified 6.6%#8847ff 5.9%violet 9.6%mil spec 4.4%milspec 7.3%best hit —