Crash
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.48
Advertised RTP
93.86%
EV $1.39 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.44%
882 openings, odds method
Variance
9.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 882 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/crash/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.48 | 93.86% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.48 | 95.23% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%classified 1.3%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.7%gold 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%mil spec 6.8%pink 3.6%#d32ee6 1.5%Legendary 1.7%#4b69ff 14.3%restricted 11.3%violet 32.5%blue 6.9%uncommon 7.0%#8847ff 4.8%Rare 4.2%milspec 3.3%best hit —