Falchion
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
91.29%
EV $2.27 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.80%
444 openings, sample method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 444 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 444 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/falchion/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 91.29% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%covert 0.1%classified 6.5%restricted 21.7%violet 0.5%Rare 5.3%mil spec 36.6%Mythical 8.4%milspec 12.7%#4b69ff 4.2%blue 4.2%best hit —