Forbes
A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$830.68
Advertised RTP
91.07%
EV $756.47 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.97%
922 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 922 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/forbes/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.07%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $831 | 91.07% | 22 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $831 | 92.63% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 56.0%contraband 0.3%sunny 2.4%legendary 2.9%classified 5.0%extraordinary 18.4%gold 9.5%covert knife 5.3%best hit $7,653 (9.21x)