Industrial

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.39
Advertised RTP
91.49%
EV $0.36 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.23%
4,719 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
96.12%±6.361,000 openings
7 days
93.23%±2.934,719 openings
30 days
93.23%±2.934,719 openings
since tracking started
93.23%±2.934,719 openings
89.0%96.0%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,00096.12%±6.36+1.4σodds
7d4,71993.23%±2.93+1.1σodds
30d4,71993.23%±2.93+1.1σodds
All4,71993.23%±2.93+1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,124 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 500,000$49.650.0%00.0—
P250 | Facets (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 333,333$39.610.0%00.0—
AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 166,667$27.380.0%00.0—
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 83,333$18.010.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 14,925$12.470.2%10.3—
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 37,037$12.060.1%00.1—
P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 6,711$7.540.3%00.8—
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 2,841$5.450.5%11.80.55×
AUG | Condemned (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 1,410$3.680.7%23.60.55×
MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 630$3.231.4%68.10.74×
FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 324$2.201.9%2215.81.39×
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 158$1.763.1%4432.51.36×
AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 111$1.553.9%4246.30.91×
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 76$1.144.2%6867.41.01×
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 52$0.945.0%11098.21.12×
P90 | Straight Dimes (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 39$0.815.8%128130.70.98×
Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 30$0.625.8%185171.01.08×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 22$0.597.4%241228.71.05×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 19$0.548.1%258274.40.94×
FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 15$0.458.3%326336.60.97×
SSG 08 | Halftone Whorl (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 14$0.449.1%386376.51.03×
Galil AR | NV (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 12$0.419.5%438424.71.03×
MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 28$0.333.3%181181.71.00×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 28$0.313.1%201181.71.11×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 28$0.262.6%180181.70.99×
MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 28$0.232.3%183181.71.01×
Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 28$0.171.7%169181.70.93×
MAC-10 | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 28$0.171.7%193181.71.06×
Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 28$0.161.6%183181.71.01×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 28$0.141.4%168181.70.92×
MP9 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 28$0.131.3%166181.70.91×
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 28$0.121.2%184181.71.01×
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 28$0.090.9%172181.70.95×
SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 28$0.090.9%165181.70.91×
Negev | Bulkhead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 28$0.070.7%192181.71.06×
MP7 | Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 28$0.070.7%184181.71.01×
M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight1 in 28$0.060.6%163181.70.90×
Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 28$0.050.5%182181.61.00×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/industrial/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$0.3991.49%38
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$0.3994.00%38
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedindustrial 29.3%#87c7ff 10.7%Uncommon 28.2%#5e98d9 9.3%light blue 15.4%Industrial Grade 3.5%blueLight 3.5%best hit —