Mouz team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.65
Advertised RTP
93.69%
EV $1.55 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.01%
337 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 337 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mouz_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.65 | 93.69% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.68 | 92.02% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.68 | 92.85% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 6.0%covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%mil spec 6.1%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 1.7%uncommon 0.9%classified 7.4%#8847ff 18.3%#d32ee6 0.3%pink 0.6%#d32ce6 2.6%restricted 21.9%violet 4.2%Mythical 6.1%milspec 11.9%Rare 5.9%blue 5.9%best hit —