Negev
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.32
Advertised RTP
93.56%
EV $0.30 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.17%
813 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 969 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/negev/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.32 | 93.56% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.32 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 11.8%industrial 11.8%#4b69ff 13.2%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%#8847ff 2.4%Uncommon 8.2%violet 0.6%mil spec 9.1%restricted 2.1%#5e98d9 3.0%Mythical 6.0%Rare 12.1%blue 7.9%Industrial Grade 3.9%Common 3.9%best hit —