Sapphire

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$1,354.99

Advertised RTP

97.29%

EV $1,318.26 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

35.64%

2 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

2 openings · below min

30 days

2 openings · below min

since tracking started

2 openings · below min

-0.5%92.3%185.0%

Small sample. 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	2	35.64%±148.8	—	odds
30d	2	35.64%±148.8	—	odds
All	2	35.64%±148.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 47	$7,283	11.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 36	$5,485	11.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 30	$5,395	13.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	10.1%	$1,834	14.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	13.2%	$1,223	12.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	12.9%	$1,103	10.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	10.9%	$918	7.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	11.9%	$895	8.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 11	$629	4.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 13	$506	2.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 16	$337	1.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20	$275	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 22	$197	0.7%	0	0.1	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/sapphire/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.