Tandem

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$8.30
Advertised RTP
93.99%
EV $7.80 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.61%
132 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
94 openings · below min
30 days
98.61%±21.77132 openings
since tracking started
98.61%±21.77132 openings
72.5%99.0%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d9499.00%±25.8—odds
30d13298.61%±21.8+0.4σodds
All13298.61%±21.8+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$5,2860.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 500,000$1,3240.0%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 333,333$9110.0%00.0—
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 200,000$6800.0%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 166,667$6140.0%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 45,455$2880.1%00.0—
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 37,037$2750.1%00.0—
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 12,500$1610.2%00.0—
★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 5,000$1270.3%00.0—
★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 5,814$1270.3%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 3,460$97.550.4%00.0—
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 1,754$78.670.6%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 1,068$73.500.9%00.1—
★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 698$62.351.1%00.2—
★ Ursus Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 631$53.331.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 411$47.551.5%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 279$42.221.9%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 255$40.852.1%10.5—
★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold1 in 190$34.242.3%10.7—
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 181$32.732.3%10.7—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 142$27.402.5%10.9—
AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 118$23.992.6%01.10.00×
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 103$23.372.9%21.31.56×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 77$18.953.1%21.71.17×
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 63$17.403.6%12.10.47×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 64$15.463.1%12.10.48×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 42$13.494.2%03.20.00×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 51$13.173.3%82.63.07×
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 41$12.393.9%43.21.24×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 31$11.944.9%64.31.41×
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 44$11.373.3%63.02.00×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 31$10.484.3%54.21.19×
AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 27$8.694.1%54.81.03×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 23$7.814.3%95.71.59×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 22$7.194.3%96.11.47×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 22$6.884.1%116.11.80×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 22$6.704.0%56.10.82×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 22$5.813.4%56.10.83×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 22$5.453.2%76.01.16×
AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 22$5.363.2%56.10.83×
MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 22$4.802.8%36.00.50×
P90 | Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 22$4.092.4%26.00.33×
Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 22$4.012.3%106.01.67×
USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 22$3.321.9%26.00.34×
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 22$1.981.1%65.91.02×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 23$1.851.1%35.90.51×
AUG | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 23$1.440.8%55.80.86×
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.120.1%35.40.56×
MP9 | Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 27$0.010.0%35.00.60×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/tandem/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$8.3093.99%49
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$8.3193.88%49
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$8.3194.63%49
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%sunny 0.0%legendary 0.0%rare 0.0%Covert 0.2%extraordinary 0.6%covert knife 0.5%gold 0.9%classified 35.2%mil spec 7.1%Legendary 7.1%pink 12.5%Industrial Grade 4.6%industrial 8.7%restricted 13.4%#4b69ff 4.4%#b0c3d9 3.8%best hit —