Ultraviolet
A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$329.99
Advertised RTP
93.73%
EV $309.31 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
111.57%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/ultraviolet/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.73%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $330 | 93.73% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $330 | 94.00% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 10.8%covert 49.9%covert knife 8.1%epic 8.8%gold 8.0%rare 7.7%sunny 3.5%Rare 3.2%best hit $507 (1.54x)