Upgrade
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$127.44
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $119.79 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.99%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/upgrade/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $127 | 94.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $132 | 90.42% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $132 | 90.99% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 19.9%covert 15.4%legendary 1.0%classified 1.6%epic 0.9%sunny 0.0%restricted 7.5%#ffd700 0.1%gold 0.6%rare 29.6%Ancient 6.7%red 6.5%pink 5.3%uncommon 4.9%best hit —