Vitality ewc

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$11.32
Advertised RTP
93.98%
EV $10.64 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.28%
326 openings, odds method
Variance
10.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
97.22%±61.74104 openings
7 days
96.46%±35.35317 openings
30 days
96.28%±34.78326 openings
since tracking started
96.28%±34.78326 openings
35.0%97.2%159.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10497.22%±61.7+0.1σodds
7d31796.46%±35.3+0.1σodds
30d32696.28%±34.8+0.1σodds
All32696.28%±34.8+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 1,000,000$30.6K0.3%00.0—
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000,000$8,0930.1%00.0—
Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 1,000,000$7,5480.1%00.0—
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 1,000,000$5,7450.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$4,2510.0%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 1,000,000$3,1330.0%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 500,000$2,2080.0%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200,000$1,2860.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 250,000$1,2840.0%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 142,857$1,0860.1%00.0—
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 71,429$6350.1%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 34,483$4200.1%00.0—
AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 23,810$3800.2%00.0—
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,526$2710.2%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny1 in 9,804$2680.3%00.0—
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 3,953$1890.4%00.1—
★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 3,731$1780.4%00.1—
★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 2,740$1510.5%00.1—
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,229$1230.9%00.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny1 in 926$1061.1%00.4—
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 333$68.231.9%11.0—
★ Paracord Knifeknife · covert1 in 152$50.973.1%42.11.87×
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 138$46.613.2%32.41.27×
AWP | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 112$40.423.4%42.91.37×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 79$34.324.1%14.10.24×
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 73$32.304.2%54.51.12×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 52$25.784.6%76.21.12×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 34$22.376.3%89.70.82×
P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 38$20.785.1%108.51.18×
AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 29$17.795.8%1211.31.06×
P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 28$17.115.8%1711.81.44×
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 17$14.157.7%1818.80.96×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 14$11.377.4%1822.50.80×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 14$11.077.4%3623.21.55×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 14$10.186.9%2423.51.02×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 14$8.976.1%3123.51.32×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 14$6.704.6%1623.80.67×
P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 13$4.062.8%2124.30.87×
P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 13$2.551.8%2024.60.81×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 13$2.241.6%2424.80.97×
AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 13$0.950.7%1925.40.75×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 13$0.590.4%2726.01.04×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/vitality_ewc/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$11.3293.98%42
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$11.4493.00%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$11.4495.06%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.7%high 0.0%contraband 0.0%classified 18.1%extraordinary 0.8%#eb4b4b 0.0%sunny 0.1%rare 0.4%epic 0.0%red 4.1%Ancient 1.4%Legendary 8.8%pink 31.3%uncommon 11.1%restricted 7.6%#8847ff 15.8%best hit —