Vitality team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$37.25
Advertised RTP
93.98%
EV $35.01 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.82%
52 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 52 openings and 9.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/vitality_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $37.25 | 93.98% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $38.03 | 92.05% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $38.03 | 93.43% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.6%covert 0.3%contraband 0.0%classified 25.1%epic 1.6%Covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert knife 3.6%#eb4b4b 0.7%pink 5.1%restricted 7.2%rare 23.4%Ancient 4.3%red 9.3%Legendary 12.7%Classified 5.1%best hit —