Treasure

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$20.58

Advertised RTP

83.30%

EV $17.14 from 153 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.75%

1,640 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.46%±19.80345 openings

7 days

80.20%±10.061,337 openings

30 days

82.75%±9.081,640 openings

since tracking started

82.75%±9.081,640 openings

59.0%79.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	345	79.46%±19.8	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,337	80.20%±10.1	−0.6σ	odds
30d	1,640	82.75%±9.08	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,640	82.75%±9.08	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values153 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,640 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$3,508	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 50,000	$2,325	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,782	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,734	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,494	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$1,476	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 50,000	$1,393	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,133	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$1,116	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$1,070	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$1,069	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$940	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 33,333	$927	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$894	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$891	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$813	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 33,333	$778	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$766	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$708	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$617	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$614	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$607	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$572	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$570	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$554	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$553	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$500	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$479	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$476	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$464	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$462	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$457	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$440	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$360	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$355	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$353	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$340	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$315	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$314	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$301	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$292	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$288	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$276	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$273	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$265	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$256	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$252	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$246	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$245	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$240	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$238	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 20,000	$234	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$232	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$232	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$212	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$211	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$209	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$207	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$197	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$196	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$193	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$189	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 10,000	$188	0.1%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$180	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$177	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$176	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$174	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$172	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 10,000	$170	0.1%	2	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$167	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$166	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$164	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$158	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$158	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$158	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$153	0.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$152	0.1%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$152	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$150	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$142	0.4%	3	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$141	0.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$139	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$138	0.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$137	0.4%	1	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$137	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$136	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$129	0.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$118	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$117	0.3%	2	0.8	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$116	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,000	$112	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$112	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$112	0.3%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$111	0.3%	2	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$111	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$111	0.3%	2	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$105	0.3%	2	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$104	0.3%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$103	0.3%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$102	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$101	0.3%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$100	0.3%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,000	$100	0.6%	2	1.6	1.22×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$99.53	0.6%	3	1.6	1.83×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$97.51	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$97.16	0.6%	2	1.6	1.22×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$96.26	0.6%	2	1.6	1.22×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$94.92	0.6%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$93.32	0.5%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$90.88	0.5%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$90.78	0.5%	3	1.6	1.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$90.48	0.5%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$90.41	0.5%	3	1.6	1.83×
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$89.73	0.5%	3	1.6	1.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$89.10	0.5%	3	1.6	1.83×
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$88.67	0.5%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$87.10	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$82.23	0.5%	2	1.6	1.22×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$80.53	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$77.84	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$77.44	0.9%	3	3.3	0.91×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$75.80	0.9%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$73.93	0.9%	4	3.3	1.22×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$71.35	0.8%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 500	$69.92	0.8%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$69.89	0.8%	5	3.3	1.52×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 500	$66.76	0.8%	4	3.3	1.22×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 500	$65.95	0.8%	6	3.3	1.83×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal	1 in 500	$65.70	0.8%	1	3.3	0.30×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$65.46	0.8%	4	3.3	1.22×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$64.70	0.8%	6	3.3	1.83×
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$63.56	0.7%	7	3.3	2.13×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$54.56	0.6%	1	3.3	0.30×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$54.16	0.6%	1	3.3	0.30×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$54.12	0.6%	3	3.3	0.91×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$48.62	0.6%	3	3.3	0.91×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$45.46	0.5%	4	3.3	1.22×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$38.82	0.5%	3	3.3	0.91×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$36.09	1.1%	8	8.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$35.06	1.0%	10	8.2	1.22×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$27.84	0.8%	6	8.2	0.73×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$24.72	0.7%	13	8.2	1.59×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$22.81	0.7%	6	8.2	0.73×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$22.26	0.6%	11	8.2	1.34×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$20.35	11.9%	170	164.0	1.04×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$18.80	11.0%	151	164.0	0.92×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$18.61	10.9%	188	164.0	1.15×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$14.30	8.3%	160	164.0	0.98×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	10.0%	$10.57	6.2%	164	164.0	1.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$7.06	4.1%	165	164.0	1.01×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$3.22	1.9%	171	164.0	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	10.0%	$1.63	1.0%	147	164.0	0.90×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	10.0%	$0.73	0.4%	152	164.0	0.93×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: treasure), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedBOT Mattias$20.58$18.610.90x52m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink陈大佬$20.58$10.570.51x52m

AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedEVI7QUEEN$20.58$7.060.34x52m

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDeadSociety$20.58$20.350.99x52m

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSchlub$20.58$27.841.35x52m

Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[BOT] T-1000$20.58$1.630.08x3h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] HAL 9000$20.58$14.300.69x3h

P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet[BOT] Patrick Bateman$20.58$0.730.04x3h

AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedTurboDave$20.58$7.060.34x3h

Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[BOT] The Joker$20.58$1.630.08x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.30%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.58	83.30%	153

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.1%Covert 0.0%classified 44.0%gold 0.6%knifes 0.0%covert knife 0.8%sunny 0.0%rare 0.0%#ffd700 0.1%Immortal 0.2%Legendary 0.2%pink 10.0%restricted 20.0%#8847ff 10.0%violet 10.0%best hit —