GLOCK-18 V.2
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$19.49
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $16.24 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.42%
1,260 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 83.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.96% – 108.87%, 1,260 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,360 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: glock-18), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.49 | 83.32% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 23.1%classified 2.2%covert 2.9%Mythical 12.0%red 0.1%industrial 1.0%mil spec 5.0%Legendary 20.0%violet 10.0%#8847ff 11.7%common 12.0%best hit $997 (51.17x)