North Pole
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$100.16
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $83.46 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.11%
451 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 455 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: north-pole), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 83.33% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 21.8%extraordinary 4.0%covert 8.0%mil spec 6.9%red 5.9%gold 5.9%industrial 17.8%restricted 5.9%Rare 5.9%violet 5.9%light blue 5.9%consumer 5.9%best hit $1,267 (12.65x)