CS2 (CSGO) Stranger Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$16.60
Advertised RTP
83.30%
EV $13.83 from 65 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.42%
1,709 openings, odds method
Variance
24.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,709 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: stranger), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff[BOT] T-1000$16.60$1.050.06x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec[BOT] Anton Chigurh$16.60$7.000.42x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec[BOT] T-1000$16.60$3.000.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.60 | 83.30% | 65 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%classified 8.8%extraordinary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 13.6%Covert 0.1%#4b69ff 17.3%epic 0.1%covert knife 0.1%mil spec 27.6%gold 0.1%industrial 4.7%#ffd700 0.5%Classified 0.5%Legendary 0.5%uncommon 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 9.5%milspec 5.0%Rare 10.0%best hit $7,000 (421.7x)