farmskins case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$20.00

Advertised RTP

83.31%

EV $16.66 from 104 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.33%

1,927 openings, odds method

Variance

14.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 65

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.86%±34.12468 openings

7 days

77.68%±17.911,699 openings

30 days

76.33%±16.821,927 openings

since tracking started

76.33%±16.821,927 openings

49.0%83.8%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	468	83.86%±34.1	+0.0σ	odds
7d	1,699	77.68%±17.9	−0.6σ	odds
30d	1,927	76.33%±16.8	−0.8σ	odds
All	1,927	76.33%±16.8	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values104 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,933 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$1,590	1.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$1,172	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,054	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$996	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,000	$990	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$984	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$981	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$965	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$957	1.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$923	1.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 5,000	$915	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$872	1.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 5,000	$822	1.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$789	0.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 5,000	$787	0.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$763	0.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 5,000	$761	0.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$742	0.9%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$699	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$680	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 5,000	$657	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$643	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$642	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$636	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,000	$618	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$606	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$590	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$588	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$579	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$571	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$570	0.7%	2	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$567	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$561	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$546	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,000	$542	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$538	0.6%	2	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$485	0.9%	1	0.6	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$481	0.9%	0	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$452	0.8%	2	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 3,333	$452	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$449	0.8%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$444	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$438	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$429	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendary	1 in 3,333	$425	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$408	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$400	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$390	0.7%	2	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 3,333	$385	0.7%	2	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$377	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 3,333	$361	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$360	0.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$355	0.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$354	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 3,333	$343	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$325	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$320	0.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$317	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$302	0.5%	2	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$299	0.7%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$298	0.7%	2	0.8	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 2,500	$297	0.7%	0	0.8	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$289	0.7%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$271	0.6%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$269	0.6%	3	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$268	0.6%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$266	0.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$265	0.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$258	0.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$245	0.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$218	0.7%	1	1.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$216	0.6%	0	1.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$215	0.6%	1	1.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$215	0.6%	1	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$198	0.6%	3	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$197	0.6%	0	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$188	0.6%	4	1.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$185	0.6%	1	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$182	0.5%	3	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 2,000	$168	0.5%	0	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$165	0.5%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$156	0.5%	1	1.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$153	0.5%	1	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 2,000	$144	0.4%	2	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$135	0.4%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$134	0.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$117	0.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,429	$95.52	0.4%	3	1.4	2.22×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$93.99	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$93.97	0.4%	1	1.4	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$93.25	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$92.10	0.4%	2	1.4	1.48×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$62.04	0.4%	2	1.9	1.03×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$46.08	0.5%	3	3.5	0.86×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$29.82	0.6%	10	6.8	1.48×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$18.20	0.8%	14	13.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 125	$15.31	0.7%	16	15.5	1.03×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$9.07	0.5%	31	19.3	1.60×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$8.91	0.5%	17	19.3	0.88×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$8.79	0.5%	13	19.3	0.67×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$8.61	0.5%	22	19.3	1.14×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	28.5%	$5.83	10.0%	579	550.9	1.05×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	29.3%	$5.24	9.2%	538	567.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	33.0%	$4.98	9.9%	629	637.9	0.99×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: farmskins-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny[BOT] HAL 9000$20.00$91545.74x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] Patrick Bateman$20.00$68034.02x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · goldNéRoN$20.00$64232.09x4d

★ Karambit | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert[BOT] Hans Landa$20.00$63631.82x3d

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert[BOT] Agent Smith$20.00$60630.32x9h

★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJermin8or$20.00$57028.52x14h

★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covertReckless877797$20.00$57028.52x3d

★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] John Doe$20.00$56128.05x3d

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertCode Tarkox$20.00$53826.89x2d

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertSTRYCK$20.00$53826.89x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRENGOKU KYOJURO$20.00$4.980.25x1h

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet♕H4PPY F33T♕$20.00$5.830.29x1h

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet[BOT] Anton Chigurh$20.00$5.830.29x9h

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet[BOT] Agent Smith$20.00$5.830.29x9h

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted[BOT] Max Cady$20.00$4.980.25x9h

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet[BOT] The Joker$20.00$5.830.29x9h

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted[BOT] Alonzo Harris$20.00$4.980.25x9h

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1914592585$20.00$4.980.25x9h

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted[BOT] Anton Chigurh$20.00$4.980.25x9h

★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] Agent Smith$20.00$39019.51x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.00	83.31%	104

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.2%covert 2.2%#ffd700 0.1%sunny 0.1%epic 0.0%legendary 0.0%rare 0.1%Immortal 0.1%red 0.1%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 35.1%pink 0.1%classified 31.4%#8847ff 0.8%Legendary 1.0%violet 28.5%best hit $915 (45.74x)