m1zry v2 Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$45.00
Advertised RTP
83.25%
EV $37.46 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.03%
581 openings, odds method
Variance
9.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 581 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: winnie), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $45.00 | 83.25% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%sunny 0.0%covert 8.6%classified 15.1%mil spec 37.9%restricted 15.4%gold 0.8%violet 1.0%pink 4.0%industrial 4.0%Mythical 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%#4b69ff 5.0%best hit $1,894 (42.09x)