CHROMA-2
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$4.85
Advertised RTP
93.78%
EV $4.55 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.19%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 8.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/chroma-2/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.85 | 93.78% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.85 | 94.43% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.85 | 93.86% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.85 | 94.26% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.85 | 92.45% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.85 | 95.22% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.85 | 95.36% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.85 | 96.23% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.85 | 98.16% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.85 | 98.12% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%gold 0.3%classified 1.8%restricted 33.1%pink 0.3%#87c7ff 0.4%industrial 0.4%Mil Spec Grade 7.5%Mil Spec 0.6%mil spec 5.7%consumer 1.2%violet 7.9%#8847ff 3.9%Industrial Grade 7.8%Mythical 3.9%Consumer Grade 8.1%Common 4.1%#4b69ff 3.7%blue 3.6%Rare 2.4%light blue 2.0%best hit —