KATANA
A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$2.40
Advertised RTP
119.23%
EV $2.86 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.70%
2,342 openings, odds method
Variance
14.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 117.40% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (65.58% – 95.82%, 2,342 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,342 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/katana/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 119.23%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.40 | 119.23% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $2.40 | 117.31% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.40 | 116.99% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.40 | 117.93% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $2.40 | 118.12% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $2.40 | 117.63% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $2.40 | 118.17% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $2.40 | 116.60% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $2.40 | 116.18% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.40 | 117.80% | 59 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%classified 2.0%restricted 20.4%Restricted 14.6%Classified 0.2%consumer 0.2%#8847ff 1.1%#d32ee6 0.3%Rare 0.3%mil spec 0.4%Consumer Grade 0.4%Common 4.1%Industrial Grade 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 9.5%violet 9.4%Mythical 12.7%milspec 8.7%#4b69ff 3.6%Mil Spec 3.5%gray 3.5%industrial 0.6%best hit —