LEGENDARY

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$499.99

Advertised RTP

68.58%

EV $342.89 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

37.65%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%136.3%273.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	18.75%±253.8	—	odds
7d	1	18.75%±253.8	—	odds
30d	4	37.65%±153.4	—	odds
All	4	37.65%±153.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$7,430	19.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$4,895	19.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,391	$2,256	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,365	$2,187	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,249	$1,885	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,115	$1,560	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,061	$1,437	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,021	$1,347	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 971	$1,238	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 970	$1,237	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 952	$1,199	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 904	$1,099	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 862	$1,016	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 844	$981	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 832	$958	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 809	$914	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 771	$844	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 733	$776	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 725	$760	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 719	$751	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 714	$741	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 703	$723	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 679	$683	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 655	$642	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 652	$638	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 652	$637	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 643	$623	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 619	$584	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 603	$561	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 579	$523	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 577	$521	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 565	$502	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 551	$482	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 546	$475	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 546	$474	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 545	$473	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 544	$472	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 77	$456	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 77	$449	1.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 72	$414	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 72	$414	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 71	$399	1.6%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 70	$389	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 68	$372	1.6%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$358	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 64	$341	1.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$340	1.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 64	$334	1.5%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$322	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$309	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 59	$285	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 57	$261	1.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 56	$246	1.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 55	$237	1.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$211	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$198	1.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$193	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 52	$173	1.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 51	$167	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 51	$160	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 51	$159	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$148	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$147	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 51	$146	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 51	$145	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 51	$143	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$142	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 51	$135	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$132	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 51	$128	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 52	$119	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 52	$116	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 52	$116	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$114	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 53	$108	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$107	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$105	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 53	$103	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$95.18	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 54	$94.77	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 55	$92.46	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 55	$92.18	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$90.06	0.5%	1	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 55	$88.39	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 56	$87.53	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 59	$75.66	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 62	$66.86	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 63	$64.47	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 63	$64.40	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 76	$48.44	0.2%	0	0.1	—

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/legendary/info, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedElusive$500$93.740.19x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 68.58%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$500	68.58%	90
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$500	59.93%	90
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$500	59.71%	90
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$500	60.14%	90
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$500	60.34%	90
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$500	59.86%	90
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$500	69.49%	90
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$500	58.39%	90
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$500	68.33%	90
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$500	70.21%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 60.2%extraordinary 13.5%restricted 7.8%classified 3.5%gold 0.1%rare 0.1%#ffd700 1.6%covert knife 2.1%epic 2.1%legendary 0.2%sunny 3.2%Covert 1.6%red 2.0%mil spec 1.9%best hit —