RESTRICTED

A case on DROP.SKIN (rarity), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$1.99

Advertised RTP

109.43%

EV $2.18 from 172 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.74%

536 openings, odds method

Variance

17.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 32

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

69 openings · below min

7 days

71.78%±36.55485 openings

30 days

71.74%±34.73536 openings

since tracking started

71.74%±34.73536 openings

-0.5%93.8%188.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 106.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (37.02% – 106.47%, 536 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	69	90.06%±97.1	—	odds
7d	485	71.78%±36.5	−1.9σ	odds
30d	536	71.74%±34.7	−2.0σ	odds
All	536	71.74%±34.7	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values172 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 536 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17,134	$325	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 15,549	$295	0.9%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11,883	$225	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,499	$180	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,694	$146	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,498	$142	0.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,781	$110	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,485	$104	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,808	$91.12	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,752	$90.06	0.9%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 4,746	$89.95	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,645	$88.04	0.9%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,574	$86.70	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,422	$83.81	0.9%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,385	$83.11	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,284	$81.20	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,174	$79.12	0.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,083	$77.38	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,063	$77.00	0.9%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 3,956	$74.97	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 3,861	$73.17	0.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,335	$63.20	0.9%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,871	$54.42	0.9%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,611	$49.49	0.9%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,492	$47.22	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,391	$45.33	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,329	$44.14	0.9%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,288	$43.37	0.9%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,236	$42.37	0.9%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,217	$42.01	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 2,092	$39.65	0.9%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,030	$38.47	0.9%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,943	$36.83	0.9%	0	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,908	$36.17	0.9%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,898	$35.97	0.9%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,871	$35.46	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,804	$34.19	0.9%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,720	$32.60	0.9%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,693	$32.08	0.9%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,423	$26.97	0.9%	0	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,384	$26.24	0.9%	0	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,369	$25.95	0.9%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,359	$25.76	0.9%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,322	$25.05	0.9%	3	0.4	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,306	$24.76	0.9%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,254	$23.76	0.9%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,157	$21.92	0.9%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,140	$21.60	0.9%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,108	$21.00	0.9%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,079	$20.45	0.9%	1	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,078	$20.44	0.9%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,053	$19.96	0.9%	2	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 875	$16.58	0.9%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 765	$14.50	0.9%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 765	$14.50	0.9%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 758	$14.36	0.9%	2	0.7	—
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 683	$12.95	0.9%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 672	$12.74	0.9%	0	0.8	—
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 648	$12.28	0.9%	0	0.8	—
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$11.84	0.9%	1	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 606	$11.49	0.9%	1	0.9	—
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 588	$11.15	0.9%	1	0.9	—
AUG \| Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 586	$11.10	0.9%	1	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 542	$10.28	0.9%	0	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 536	$10.16	0.9%	1	1.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 536	$10.15	0.9%	2	1.0	2.00×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,740	$9.79	0.3%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,674	$9.42	0.3%	2	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,632	$9.19	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,531	$8.62	0.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,509	$8.50	0.3%	1	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,497	$8.43	0.3%	1	0.4	—
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,493	$8.40	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,484	$8.35	0.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 1,439	$8.10	0.3%	2	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,345	$7.57	0.3%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,335	$7.52	0.3%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$7.41	0.3%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,291	$7.27	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,181	$6.65	0.3%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,144	$6.44	0.3%	1	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,104	$6.22	0.3%	0	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,081	$6.09	0.3%	1	0.5	—
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 979	$5.51	0.3%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 966	$5.44	0.3%	0	0.6	—
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 955	$5.38	0.3%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 947	$5.33	0.3%	2	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 931	$5.24	0.3%	0	0.6	—
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 920	$5.18	0.3%	0	0.6	—
P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 909	$5.12	0.3%	2	0.6	—
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 904	$5.09	0.3%	0	0.6	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 898	$5.06	0.3%	1	0.6	—
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 893	$5.03	0.3%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 866	$4.88	0.3%	0	0.6	—
PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 860	$4.84	0.3%	0	0.6	—
AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 835	$4.70	0.3%	1	0.6	—
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 831	$4.68	0.3%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 824	$4.64	0.3%	1	0.7	—
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 800	$4.50	0.3%	0	0.7	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 797	$4.49	0.3%	0	0.7	—
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 725	$4.08	0.3%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 721	$4.06	0.3%	0	0.7	—
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 716	$4.03	0.3%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 705	$3.97	0.3%	0	0.8	—
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 705	$3.97	0.3%	2	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 682	$3.84	0.3%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 679	$3.82	0.3%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 676	$3.81	0.3%	0	0.8	—
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 656	$3.69	0.3%	1	0.8	—
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 647	$3.64	0.3%	3	0.8	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 611	$3.44	0.3%	0	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 600	$3.38	0.3%	0	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 595	$3.35	0.3%	1	0.9	—
Nova \| Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 536	$3.01	0.3%	1	1.0	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 535	$3.01	0.3%	2	1.0	2.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 531	$2.99	0.3%	1	1.0	0.99×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 516	$2.91	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 488	$2.75	0.3%	2	1.1	1.82×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 481	$2.71	0.3%	1	1.1	0.90×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 466	$2.62	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 461	$2.60	0.3%	1	1.2	0.86×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 454	$2.56	0.3%	2	1.2	1.70×
Nova \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 443	$2.49	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 410	$2.31	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 401	$2.26	0.3%	1	1.3	0.75×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 398	$2.24	0.3%	1	1.3	0.74×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 389	$2.19	0.3%	1	1.4	0.73×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 387	$2.18	0.3%	1	1.4	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 378	$2.13	0.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 356	$2.00	0.3%	1	1.5	0.66×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 356	$2.00	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 354	$1.99	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	—	$1.97	0.0%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	—	$1.92	0.0%	1	0.0	—
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	—	$1.89	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	—	$1.85	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	—	$1.81	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	—	$1.81	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	—	$1.73	0.0%	0	0.0	—
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	—	$1.70	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	—	$1.65	0.0%	1	0.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	—	$1.61	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	—	$1.58	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	—	$1.56	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	—	$1.49	0.0%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	—	$1.47	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	—	$1.42	0.0%	1	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	—	$1.42	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	—	$1.42	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	—	$1.41	0.0%	5	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	—	$1.41	0.0%	2	0.0	—
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	—	$1.41	0.0%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	—	$1.40	0.0%	4	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	—	$1.39	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted	—	$1.39	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$1.37	0.6%	0	5.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.34	0.6%	5	5.4	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$1.31	0.6%	5	5.4	0.93×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$1.30	0.6%	11	5.4	2.05×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$1.26	0.6%	5	5.4	0.93×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$1.25	0.6%	6	5.4	1.12×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$1.22	0.6%	7	5.4	1.31×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$1.18	0.5%	5	5.4	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.17	0.5%	5	5.4	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.16	0.5%	9	5.4	1.68×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.12	0.5%	4	5.4	0.75×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.10	0.5%	3	5.4	0.56×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.08	0.5%	6	5.4	1.12×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.06	0.5%	6	5.4	1.12×
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.98	0.5%	7	5.4	1.31×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.95	0.4%	2	5.4	0.37×
Negev \| Loudmouth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.94	0.4%	1	5.4	0.19×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.94	0.4%	3	5.4	0.56×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.93	0.4%	9	5.4	1.68×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.90	0.4%	4	5.4	0.75×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.82	0.4%	4	5.4	0.75×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.78	0.4%	10	5.4	1.87×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.76	0.3%	8	5.4	1.49×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.74	0.7%	14	10.7	1.31×
P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.73	0.7%	14	10.7	1.31×
Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.73	0.7%	5	10.7	0.47×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.67	0.6%	9	10.7	0.84×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.60	0.6%	14	10.7	1.31×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.59	0.5%	8	10.7	0.75×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.59	0.5%	15	10.7	1.40×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.57	0.5%	0	10.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.56	0.5%	10	10.7	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.55	0.5%	12	10.7	1.12×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.55	0.5%	8	10.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.54	0.5%	0	10.7	0.00×
M249 \| Aztec (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.53	0.5%	10	10.7	0.93×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.52	0.5%	9	10.7	0.84×
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$0.44	0.4%	35	10.7	3.26×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.42	0.4%	22	10.7	2.05×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	31.0%	$0.38	5.5%	123	166.2	0.74×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/restricted/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetrzkai$1.99$8.104.07x16m

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetHyperionRax$1.99$0.380.19x20m

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedkuralo$1.99$6.443.24x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetL4gos$1.99$0.380.19x3h

MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffCreker$1.99$11.155.60x3h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetBlack_anys$1.99$0.380.19x5h

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffHYPE$1.99$0.580.29x9h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$1.99$0.380.19x9h

P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · RestrictedomeR$1.99$0.440.22x9h

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.99$0.530.27x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 109.43%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$1.99	109.43%	195
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$1.99	107.66%	195
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.99	108.88%	195
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.99	105.34%	195
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$1.99	106.24%	195
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$1.99	108.58%	195
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$1.99	106.34%	195
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$1.99	106.87%	195
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$1.99	105.48%	195
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$1.99	105.24%	195

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 33.1%Mythical 9.8%violet 46.8%#8847ff 7.9%Restricted 2.4%best hit —