Fusion
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$6.00
Advertised RTP
89.11%
EV $5.35 from 61 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.54%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/137, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.11%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $6.00 | 89.11% | 61 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%restricted 14.8%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.0%mil spec 3.3%#ffd700 0.3%classified 8.9%pink 0.8%#d32ee6 1.5%Mythical 3.9%#4b69ff 8.7%Legendary 4.5%industrial 12.0%milspec 2.9%Rare 2.6%#87c7ff 9.3%#777777 25.6%best hit —