Szeli
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$8.00
Advertised RTP
88.94%
EV $7.12 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.80%
11.2K openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1460313, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.94% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 8.7%covert 1.5%classified 21.2%#ffd700 0.0%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.3%red 0.0%Ancient 0.4%#d32ce6 8.1%Mythical 6.6%#4b69ff 35.2%mil spec 18.0%best hit $689 (86.09x)