Data Blitz

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$250.00

Advertised RTP

86.82%

EV $217.05 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.92%

110 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

25 openings · below min

7 days

96 openings · below min

30 days

84.92%±10.23110 openings

since tracking started

84.92%±10.23110 openings

59.5%81.5%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	25	81.62%±21.5	—	odds
7d	96	86.54%±10.9	—	odds
30d	110	84.92%±10.2	−0.4σ	odds
All	110	84.92%±10.2	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$5,421	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$3,145	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$2,239	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$1,217	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$1,084	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$956	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 877	$729	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 862	$721	0.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 806	$673	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 758	$633	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 694	$578	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 680	$569	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$499	4.9%	1	2.4	0.43×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$450	4.9%	1	2.6	0.38×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$384	4.9%	2	3.1	0.65×
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$343	4.9%	4	3.4	1.17×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$311	4.9%	2	3.8	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$299	4.9%	4	3.9	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$291	4.9%	9	4.0	2.23×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 27	$289	4.9%	5	4.1	1.23×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$260	4.9%	4	4.5	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	70.0%	$159	51.2%	76	77.1	0.99×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635151, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.