Sapphire
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$55.00
Advertised RTP
88.93%
EV $48.91 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.68%
5,683 openings, odds method
Variance
23.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 57
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,683 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635178, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire♿Ali5Cali♿$55.00$7,596138.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire♤|NEQQ| skins.army$55.00$7,596138.1x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $55.00 | 88.93% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.8%legendary 0.3%#ffd700 0.5%gold 0.6%classified 2.4%violet 5.4%Mythical 1.2%Rare 81.8%best hit $7,596 (138.1x)