Samba Night
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.50
Advertised RTP
88.91%
EV $1.33 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.99%
25.5K openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635296, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.91% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 5.4%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 0.5%extraordinary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.2%Classified 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%mil spec 3.9%milspec 0.6%violet 0.9%Rare 8.9%#4b69ff 4.7%Consumer Grade 0.5%industrial 0.6%Mythical 2.5%#777777 3.3%#b0c3d9 67.8%best hit $149 (99.27x)