Swamp Forager
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$21.00
Advertised RTP
88.77%
EV $18.64 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.77%
1,331 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,335 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635571, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $21.00 | 88.77% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 19.1%legendary 0.1%covert 3.3%classified 3.4%restricted 3.3%extraordinary 0.7%red 0.7%Covert 2.1%pink 4.4%#87c7ff 5.3%Mil Spec Grade 2.7%blue 3.1%violet 5.9%Mythical 2.8%Rare 2.9%milspec 13.1%industrial 27.2%best hit $551 (26.23x)