Twenty-one
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$21.00
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $18.66 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.79%
1,167 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,171 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/274, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $21.00 | 88.88% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $21.00 | 88.84% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.6%covert 4.4%red 0.3%restricted 2.7%#4b69ff 0.9%mil spec 69.6%#d32ce6 2.1%Ancient 2.4%Restricted 3.3%rare 3.6%best hit $1,330 (63.33x)