Covert
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
88.86%
EV $10.66 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.97%
5,183 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,196 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/28, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $12.00 | 88.86% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.9%#eb4b4b 86.6%red 2.2%Ancient 4.3%best hit —