AWP MAS7ER

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$4.40

Advertised RTP

84.42%

EV $3.71 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.06%

9,911 openings, odds method

Variance

12.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 46

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.60%±19.931,237 openings

7 days

87.34%±7.548,651 openings

30 days

85.06%±7.049,911 openings

since tracking started

85.06%±7.049,911 openings

70.0%90.5%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,237	90.60%±19.9	+0.6σ	odds
7d	8,651	87.34%±7.54	+0.8σ	odds
30d	9,911	85.06%±7.04	+0.3σ	odds
All	9,911	85.06%±7.04	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,918 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$132	19.1%	52	53.4	0.97×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 186	$98.12	14.2%	58	53.4	1.09×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$85.88	12.4%	49	53.4	0.92×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$49.74	7.2%	58	53.4	1.09×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$47.07	6.8%	56	53.4	1.05×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$43.30	6.3%	55	53.4	1.03×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 186	$39.71	5.8%	58	53.4	1.09×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$39.35	5.7%	59	53.4	1.11×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$37.59	5.4%	54	53.4	1.01×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 184	$31.06	4.5%	62	54.0	1.15×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 186	$29.28	4.2%	42	53.4	0.79×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 186	$28.59	4.1%	43	53.4	0.81×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 186	$21.73	3.1%	57	53.4	1.07×
FAMAS \| Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777	93.0%	$0.04	1.0%	9,215	9223.7	1.00×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/285, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777$4.40$0.040.01x15s

AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.40$98.1222.30x15s

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777abuk$4.40$0.040.01x15s

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777Kalasznikov$4.40$0.040.01x1m

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777Kʳek$4.40$0.040.01x1m

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777$4.40$0.040.01x2m

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777Kalasznikov$4.40$0.040.01x2m

FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777abuk$4.40$0.040.01x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.42%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
5 Nov, 11:42 UTC	$4.40	84.42%	14
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$4.90	83.37%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.2%classified 1.6%restricted 1.1%industrial 0.5%#d32ce6 0.5%#777777 93.0%best hit —