10% GLOCK
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.20
Advertised RTP
82.46%
EV $3.46 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.35%
18.6K openings, odds method
Variance
20.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/424, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.20 | 82.46% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 2.4%classified 1.3%Mythical 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.3%covert 0.5%mil spec 90.6%#d32ee6 1.2%Legendary 3.5%best hit $1,671 (397.9x)