Chroma 2 Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

92.04%

EV $2.21 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.82%

145 openings, odds method

Variance

7.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

83.15%±45.41136 openings

30 days

80.82%±44.10145 openings

since tracking started

80.82%±44.10145 openings

-0.5%129.8%260.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	75.63%±183.9	—	odds
7d	136	83.15%±45.4	−0.4σ	odds
30d	145	80.82%±44.1	−0.5σ	odds
All	145	80.82%±44.1	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$158	1.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$157	1.3%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$147	0.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$145	1.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 9,091	$137	0.7%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$135	0.8%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$135	1.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$134	0.9%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$133	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$130	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$130	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$128	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$126	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$80.58	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$55.69	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 7,692	$43.79	0.3%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$38.89	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$33.49	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$29.64	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$22.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$20.39	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$15.07	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$14.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$14.90	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$14.83	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$14.71	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,263	$14.67	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$14.05	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$13.89	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$13.68	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$13.53	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 7,692	$13.45	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,613	$13.28	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 9,091	$13.02	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,263	$12.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$12.89	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$12.80	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$12.72	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,124	$12.71	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 645	$12.49	0.9%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 242	$9.70	1.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 148	$9.03	2.8%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 289	$8.42	1.3%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$7.03	3.2%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$6.20	2.2%	5	1.1	4.49×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 116	$6.15	2.4%	2	1.2	1.60×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$6.14	3.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 119	$5.59	2.1%	2	1.2	1.64×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 141	$5.59	1.8%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 115	$4.49	1.8%	1	1.3	0.79×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 79	$4.44	2.5%	3	1.8	1.64×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 90	$4.43	2.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 72	$4.27	2.7%	1	2.0	0.50×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 121	$4.09	1.5%	1	1.2	0.84×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 92	$4.08	2.0%	2	1.6	1.27×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 76	$3.38	2.0%	2	1.9	1.05×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 68	$3.32	2.2%	1	2.1	0.47×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$3.16	2.4%	4	2.5	1.62×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 47	$2.84	2.7%	3	3.1	0.98×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$2.78	2.0%	3	2.3	1.28×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$2.45	2.1%	7	2.8	2.52×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 48	$2.23	2.1%	3	3.0	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 56	$2.20	1.8%	3	2.6	1.16×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$2.08	1.9%	3	2.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$2.07	1.4%	2	2.2	0.89×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$1.92	0.9%	2	1.5	1.34×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$1.81	1.1%	1	1.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 90	$1.80	0.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.72	1.1%	1	2.1	0.47×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$1.70	0.7%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 114	$1.70	0.7%	1	1.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Armor Core (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$1.68	0.5%	2	1.0	1.97×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 106	$1.67	0.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$1.66	0.5%	1	1.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 80	$1.62	0.9%	4	1.8	2.21×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 132	$1.54	0.5%	1	1.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$1.45	0.8%	3	1.8	1.66×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.44	0.8%	2	1.9	1.08×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 60	$1.40	1.1%	0	2.4	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 74	$1.39	0.8%	2	2.0	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$1.37	0.7%	1	1.6	0.64×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 85	$1.37	0.7%	4	1.7	2.36×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$1.36	0.7%	1	1.7	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 79	$1.29	0.7%	2	1.8	1.09×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 68	$1.23	0.8%	2	2.1	0.94×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$1.05	1.0%	6	3.1	1.94×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$0.95	1.1%	2	3.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$0.93	1.3%	4	4.6	0.88×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$0.88	1.2%	4	4.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$0.82	0.8%	0	3.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$0.78	0.6%	6	2.4	2.54×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.69	0.6%	1	2.8	0.35×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Armor Core (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 48	$0.69	0.6%	0	3.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Armor Core (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 54	$0.61	0.5%	1	2.7	0.38×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.59	0.5%	3	2.5	1.20×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 54	$0.58	0.5%	1	2.7	0.37×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 65	$0.55	0.4%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 120	$0.54	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 99	$0.51	0.2%	2	1.5	1.37×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$0.51	0.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 113	$0.46	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 131	$0.45	0.2%	2	1.1	1.80×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$0.43	0.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 99	$0.43	0.2%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 119	$0.40	0.2%	2	1.2	1.65×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 120	$0.40	0.2%	3	1.2	2.49×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 180	$0.38	0.1%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 181	$0.38	0.1%	0	0.8	—
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$0.37	0.1%	3	1.0	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 130	$0.37	0.1%	1	1.1	0.89×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 113	$0.36	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 158	$0.34	0.1%	4	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 181	$0.33	0.1%	2	0.8	—
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 140	$0.32	0.1%	3	1.0	2.89×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 110	$0.32	0.1%	1	1.3	0.76×
Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 116	$0.31	0.1%	1	1.2	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 132	$0.31	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 116	$0.31	0.1%	3	1.2	2.41×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 117	$0.31	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 116	$0.31	0.1%	2	1.3	1.60×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 134	$0.28	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 128	$0.27	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/chroma2, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Armor Core (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffДРЕЛЬ$2.40$1.050.44x2h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Armor Core (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffДРЕЛЬ$2.40$0.580.24x2h

MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violetD.Vla.M$2.40$1.370.57x2h

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violetFiNiK$2.40$1.390.58x5h

MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · MythicalKapitein$2.40$6.092.54x13h

Sawed-Off | Origami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rareprexenco$2.40$0.320.13x14h

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedMr.Traher$2.40$1.600.67x15h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecSayfilich$2.40$2.120.88x22h

MP7 | Armor Core (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffsoldado$2.40$1.020.43x1d

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedsoldado$2.40$1.580.66x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	122
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	122
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	122
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	122
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	122
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	122
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	122
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	122
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	122
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	122
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	122
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	122
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	122

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.9%covert 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 0.5%Classified 0.0%mil spec 11.6%restricted 15.2%#d32ee6 0.1%pink 0.0%Restricted 4.2%Mythical 4.7%#8847ff 4.0%milspec 28.3%#4b69ff 12.2%violet 7.1%Rare 5.7%Mil Spec Grade 2.9%blue 2.4%best hit —