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Covert

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$75.00
Advertised RTP
91.92%
EV $68.94 from 85 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.20%
581 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
40 openings · below min
7 days
89.47%±7.02378 openings
30 days
89.20%±5.66581 openings
since tracking started
89.20%±5.66581 openings
49.0%73.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4070.70%±21.1—odds
7d37889.47%±7.02−0.7σodds
30d58189.20%±5.66−0.9σodds
All58189.20%±5.66−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 581 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 205$2391.7%42.81.41×
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 203$2361.7%12.90.35×
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 99$2183.2%25.90.34×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 242$1981.2%42.41.66×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 141$1972.0%34.10.73×
P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 147$1961.9%34.00.76×
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 124$1962.3%34.70.64×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 397$1930.7%21.51.37×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 169$1911.6%33.40.88×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 278$1800.9%42.11.91×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 155$1761.7%43.71.07×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 123$1752.1%44.70.85×
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 108$1492.0%45.40.75×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 113$1491.9%75.21.36×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 105$1452.0%85.51.44×
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 112$1421.8%85.21.54×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 238$1370.8%42.41.64×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 143$1351.4%34.10.74×
AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 114$1351.7%35.10.59×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 146$1301.3%34.00.75×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 192$1301.0%23.00.66×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 197$1270.9%32.91.02×
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 114$1241.6%35.10.59×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 336$1230.5%01.70.00×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 178$1221.0%33.30.92×
P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 157$1221.1%43.71.08×
P250 | See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 148$1201.2%23.90.51×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 204$1200.8%22.80.70×
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 193$1200.9%53.01.66×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 168$1191.0%13.50.29×
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 250$1180.7%42.31.72×
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 144$1171.2%74.01.73×
P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 160$1141.0%43.61.10×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 73$1092.2%27.90.25×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 81$98.971.8%87.11.12×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 91$94.131.5%76.41.09×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 61$92.682.2%99.50.95×
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 64$89.162.0%59.00.55×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 90$89.091.4%16.40.16×
P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 208$87.710.6%42.81.43×
AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 176$86.080.7%63.31.81×
AUG | Chameleon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 144$83.680.8%74.01.74×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 91$79.301.3%66.40.94×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 80$73.801.3%77.20.97×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 78$71.831.3%167.52.14×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 72$71.831.4%78.00.87×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 68$71.541.5%68.50.71×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 67$67.951.5%98.71.03×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 68$62.781.3%88.60.93×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 67$61.161.3%118.71.27×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 50$60.921.8%411.60.34×
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 53$58.211.6%1410.91.29×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 67$50.231.1%38.70.34×
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 58$49.061.2%810.00.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 54$47.971.3%1210.81.11×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 64$47.651.1%89.10.88×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 102$47.520.7%65.71.05×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 116$47.030.6%55.00.99×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 172$42.250.4%83.42.37×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 81$41.010.7%47.20.55×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 85$41.000.7%26.80.29×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 67$39.410.9%88.70.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 129$38.870.4%134.52.88×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 368$38.630.2%31.61.90×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 156$38.050.4%63.71.61×
USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 153$37.450.4%73.81.85×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 357$36.070.1%31.61.84×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 143$35.440.4%54.01.23×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 228$35.320.2%52.51.96×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 170$35.300.3%33.40.88×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 752$35.240.1%100.8—
USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 187$35.090.3%33.10.96×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 170$34.960.3%33.40.88×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 108$34.220.5%35.40.56×
USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 92$33.710.5%46.30.64×
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 90$32.400.5%46.40.62×
M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 62$30.960.7%139.41.39×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 62$30.930.7%139.41.38×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 37$30.651.2%815.50.52×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 38$28.781.1%2015.41.30×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 32$26.831.2%1318.40.71×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 23$26.201.7%2925.41.14×
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 18$25.442.1%2432.80.73×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 19$22.781.8%4131.21.31×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 18$22.441.8%3032.80.91×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/covert, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covertNonesy$75.00$41.350.55x
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covertNonesy$75.00$48.420.65x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertNonesy$75.00$47.620.63x
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertNonesy$75.00$1972.63x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertksp$75.00$34.110.45x
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covertZODYARA🇺🇦$75.00$62.100.83x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · redZODYARA🇺🇦$75.00$22.390.30x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertZODYARA🇺🇦$75.00$28.510.38x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · redLOM$75.00$22.390.30x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · redMiler$75.00$22.390.30x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$75.0091.92%85
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$75.0091.96%85
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$75.0091.92%85
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$75.0092.00%85
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$75.0091.94%85
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$75.0091.99%85
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$75.0091.92%85
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$75.0091.93%85
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$75.0092.00%85
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$75.0091.92%85
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$75.0092.00%85
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$75.0091.96%85
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$75.0091.95%85
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$75.0091.91%85
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$75.0091.97%85
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$75.0092.00%85
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$75.0091.92%85
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$75.0091.93%85
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$75.0091.95%85
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$75.0091.92%85
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$75.0091.92%85
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$75.0091.96%85
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$75.0092.00%85
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$75.0091.94%85
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$75.0091.91%85
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$75.0091.92%85
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$75.0091.90%85
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$75.0092.00%85
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$75.0091.97%85
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$75.0092.00%85
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 76.7%Ancient 4.3%red 11.4%Covert 2.7%#eb4b4b 4.8%best hit —