CS20 Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

87.69%

EV $4.20 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.71%

74 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

56 openings · below min

30 days

74 openings · below min

since tracking started

74 openings · below min

34.0%72.5%111.0%

Small sample. 74 openings and 11.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	56	66.11%±31.6	—	odds
30d	74	82.71%±27.5	—	odds
All	74	82.71%±27.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds summed to 0.9839, rescaled · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$96.77	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$94.54	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$80.25	0.2%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$55.04	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 10,000	$50.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 877	$49.06	1.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$47.65	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$43.91	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 862	$41.65	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 521	$40.80	1.9%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$38.96	1.2%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 358	$37.71	2.5%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 282	$33.82	2.9%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 228	$27.55	2.9%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 205	$20.79	2.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 119	$17.97	3.7%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 228	$16.08	1.7%	2	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$13.16	3.8%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$10.64	3.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$9.77	3.1%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$9.64	3.3%	2	1.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 74	$9.31	3.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 75	$8.80	2.9%	2	1.0	1.98×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 75	$8.10	2.6%	2	1.0	1.99×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$6.99	3.1%	1	1.4	0.72×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$6.40	3.3%	1	1.6	0.62×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$5.92	3.2%	1	1.7	0.59×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$5.76	3.1%	2	1.7	1.18×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$5.37	2.4%	3	1.4	2.19×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$5.19	2.4%	1	1.4	0.69×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$5.15	1.9%	1	1.1	0.89×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$4.66	2.1%	1	1.4	0.72×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$4.62	2.1%	3	1.4	2.13×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$4.50	2.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 41	$4.38	2.6%	1	1.8	0.54×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$4.24	2.4%	1	1.8	0.57×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$2.88	2.2%	4	2.3	1.72×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 27	$2.51	2.3%	3	2.8	1.07×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 23	$2.45	2.5%	3	3.2	0.93×
M249 \| Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$2.33	2.9%	2	3.8	0.53×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$2.29	1.4%	1	1.9	0.53×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$1.95	0.9%	2	1.4	1.39×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.88	1.0%	2	1.6	1.25×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.86	0.9%	4	1.5	2.66×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.76	1.0%	4	1.8	2.17×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.68	0.7%	2	1.2	1.62×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$1.68	0.5%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$1.57	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$1.53	0.6%	2	1.1	1.74×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.44	0.6%	1	1.2	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.23	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 64	$1.21	0.5%	1	1.2	0.85×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 57	$1.13	0.5%	3	1.3	2.27×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 64	$1.12	0.4%	1	1.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 123	$1.08	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.06	0.3%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 138	$1.05	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 136	$1.01	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 138	$1.01	0.2%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 211	$0.98	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 195	$0.95	0.1%	0	0.4	—
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 121	$0.88	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 92	$0.84	0.2%	2	0.8	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$0.67	0.2%	0	0.8	—
P250 \| Inferno (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 85	$0.66	0.2%	2	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$0.59	0.1%	0	0.8	—
M249 \| Aztec (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$0.58	0.2%	2	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 98	$0.58	0.1%	0	0.8	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 201	$0.57	0.1%	0	0.4	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 235	$0.55	0.1%	1	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 490	$0.54	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 410	$0.53	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Popdog (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 410	$0.53	0.0%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 410	$0.53	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M249 \| Aztec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 407	$0.49	0.0%	1	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 405	$0.49	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 444	$0.47	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 455	$0.46	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 324	$0.44	0.0%	1	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 318	$0.44	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 269	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 286	$0.43	0.0%	1	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 266	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 280	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 265	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 373	$0.38	0.0%	1	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 266	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Popdog (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 255	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 191	$0.27	0.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 195	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.4	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/csgo20, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedShpric$4.79$9.582.00x1d

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedShpric$4.79$16.323.41x1d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedShpric$4.79$2.970.62x1d

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecShpric$4.79$1.780.37x1d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedShpric$4.79$1.860.39x1d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Popdog (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecMartin_Striker$4.79$0.540.11x1d

M249 | Aztec (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMartin_Striker$4.79$0.520.11x1d

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specMartin_Striker$4.79$0.470.10x1d

UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMartin_Striker$4.79$1.130.24x1d

P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn)weapon · RestrictedMartin_Striker$4.79$0.670.14x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	87.69%	90
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	88.33%	90
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	88.75%	90
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	87.90%	90
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	87.07%	90
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	88.03%	90
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	87.57%	90
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	87.74%	90
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	88.03%	90
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	87.50%	90
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	87.32%	90
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	87.38%	90
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	88.24%	90
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	87.45%	90
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	89.56%	90
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	88.64%	90
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	87.51%	90
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	88.40%	90
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	88.38%	90
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	87.20%	90
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	88.04%	90
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	87.58%	90
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	87.84%	90
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	87.30%	90
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	88.02%	90
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	87.58%	90
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	87.75%	90
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	87.31%	90
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	86.69%	90
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	88.08%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.3%classified 21.8%#eb4b4b 0.0%Legendary 0.4%Restricted 9.5%mil spec 7.8%pink 1.9%#4b69ff 2.1%restricted 35.9%Mythical 4.7%Mil Spec 3.7%milspec 6.5%Rare 1.1%Mil Spec Grade 1.9%best hit —