Factory new
A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.
Price
$1,416.44
Advertised RTP
68.88%
EV $975.63 from 80 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.73%
56 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 56 openings and 13.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values80 items · odds summed to 0.9553, rescaled · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
ggdrop:api/case/factory-new, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedr1stAAAA火影$1,416$2680.19x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryBest Code:Pisika450 %+Free $$1,416$1,7371.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 68.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1,416 | 68.88% | 80 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1,416 | 68.93% | 80 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1,416 | 67.95% | 80 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1,416 | 70.24% | 80 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1,416 | 68.31% | 80 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1,416 | 68.49% | 80 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1,416 | 69.22% | 80 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1,416 | 68.76% | 80 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1,416 | 69.79% | 80 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1,416 | 67.90% | 80 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1,416 | 70.06% | 80 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1,416 | 69.11% | 80 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1,416 | 69.35% | 80 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1,416 | 67.97% | 80 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1,416 | 67.73% | 80 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1,416 | 67.08% | 80 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1,416 | 68.56% | 80 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1,416 | 68.19% | 80 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1,416 | 68.43% | 80 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1,416 | 68.50% | 80 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1,416 | 68.71% | 80 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1,416 | 68.66% | 80 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1,416 | 69.53% | 80 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,416 | 68.37% | 80 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1,416 | 68.73% | 80 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1,416 | 68.86% | 80 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1,416 | 68.20% | 80 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1,416 | 68.95% | 80 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1,416 | 69.09% | 80 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1,416 | 68.90% | 80 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.4%restricted 7.9%extraordinary 16.2%covert 39.6%epic 2.9%#d32ee6 3.1%Classified 1.8%rare 1.5%covert knife 1.7%pink 0.5%best hit $2,397 (1.69x)