The Fracture Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

86.91%

EV $4.16 from 95 items

Observed RTP, 30d

49.89%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

-0.5%86.8%174.0%

Small sample. 28 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	68.81%±104.3	—	odds
7d	26	51.05%±46.2	—	odds
30d	28	49.89%±44.5	—	odds
All	28	49.89%±44.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values95 items · odds summed to 0.9817, rescaled · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$66.15	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$55.68	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 9,091	$50.23	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$49.60	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$42.74	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 1,695	$41.01	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 730	$39.15	1.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 971	$38.88	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 518	$38.05	1.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 314	$37.02	2.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 365	$36.49	2.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 429	$36.16	2.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 885	$36.07	1.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 145	$23.84	4.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 133	$23.10	4.3%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 93	$13.33	3.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 78	$12.63	3.9%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 55	$11.58	5.1%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 75	$10.99	3.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 62	$7.31	2.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.90	3.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 46	$6.81	3.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 43	$6.62	3.7%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 92	$6.24	1.7%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 101	$6.15	1.5%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 80	$6.12	1.9%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 87	$6.08	1.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 105	$6.03	1.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 73	$5.32	1.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$4.87	2.0%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$4.40	2.3%	1	0.6	—
XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 41	$4.23	2.5%	2	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 44	$4.14	2.3%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 45	$4.10	2.2%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$4.03	1.6%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Entombed (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$3.85	1.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 47	$3.77	1.9%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$3.22	2.1%	0	0.8	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 32	$3.20	2.5%	0	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 27	$2.71	2.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$2.35	2.6%	1	1.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$2.00	1.9%	1	1.1	0.91×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$1.73	2.1%	3	1.4	2.11×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$1.49	1.6%	2	1.3	1.58×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.29	1.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$1.12	1.0%	1	1.1	0.93×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.99	0.8%	1	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 37	$0.84	0.6%	1	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 44	$0.82	0.5%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 62	$0.80	0.3%	4	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 95	$0.79	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 95	$0.79	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 186	$0.68	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 225	$0.66	0.1%	3	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 185	$0.66	0.1%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 181	$0.63	0.1%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 138	$0.62	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 138	$0.62	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 247	$0.61	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Ultralight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 204	$0.52	0.1%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 220	$0.47	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 139	$0.46	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.45	0.1%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Allure (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$0.43	0.1%	0	0.2	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 375	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 214	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 562	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 457	$0.27	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 322	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Ultralight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 235	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 254	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 515	$0.19	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Freight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,075	$0.19	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,042	$0.19	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 348	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 775	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 448	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 4,762	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,571	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 7,692	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,263	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,000	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Cassette (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 4,348	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Cassette (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 7,143	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 5,882	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 4,762	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Ultralight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 9,091	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Ultralight (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 7,143	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 9,091	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 901	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Runic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 472	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 847	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 5,882	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 6,667	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 893	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/fracture_case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalШуврентий Палыч$4.79$0.790.16x4h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffШуврентий Палыч$4.79$2.000.42x4h

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedШуврентий Палыч$4.79$1.290.27x4h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedШуврентий Палыч$4.79$11.582.42x4h

Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalШуврентий Палыч$4.79$0.820.17x4h

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · MythicalGybuLe$4.79$1.760.37x1d

MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetyumo$4.79$0.970.20x1d

MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffБАРЯ$4.79$0.840.18x2d

XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryБАРЯ$4.79$4.240.89x2d

Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffLuBOT$4.79$2.090.44x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	86.91%	95
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	87.81%	95
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	87.39%	95
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	87.76%	95
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	87.55%	95
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	87.40%	95
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	87.37%	95
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	87.77%	95
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	87.46%	95
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	86.05%	95
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	86.61%	95
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	86.80%	95
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	86.87%	95
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	86.08%	95
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	86.87%	95
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	87.49%	95
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	86.57%	95
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	86.56%	95
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	87.22%	95
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	86.99%	95
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	86.95%	95
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	87.01%	95
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	86.83%	95
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	87.46%	95
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	86.18%	95
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	86.51%	95
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	86.15%	95
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	86.95%	95
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	88.38%	95
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	86.55%	95

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.3%covert 0.3%Ancient 0.3%Covert 0.1%red 0.8%classified 12.3%Legendary 7.9%Classified 5.0%#d32ee6 3.4%#8847ff 24.3%pink 5.6%restricted 8.5%Restricted 3.1%Mythical 14.9%violet 5.2%#8847FF 0.5%milspec 2.4%#4b69ff 1.9%Rare 1.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%best hit —