Souvenir

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1,499.00

Advertised RTP

82.98%

EV $1,243.89 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.37%

31 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

31 openings · below min

since tracking started

31 openings · below min

3.5%69.3%135.0%

Small sample. 31 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	69.03%±65.1	—	odds
7d	28	73.10%±32.9	—	odds
30d	31	68.37%±31.2	—	odds
All	31	68.37%±31.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 397	$8,152	1.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 395	$8,088	1.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 377	$7,397	1.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 362	$6,399	1.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 362	$6,023	1.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 293	$5,798	1.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 215	$5,472	2.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 306	$5,327	1.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 185	$5,195	2.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 260	$4,939	1.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 254	$4,756	1.5%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 214	$4,285	1.6%	1	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 153	$3,918	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 162	$3,521	1.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 142	$3,337	1.9%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 150	$3,309	1.8%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 141	$3,259	1.9%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$3,210	1.9%	1	0.2	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 203	$3,079	1.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 179	$3,072	1.4%	0	0.2	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 190	$3,017	1.3%	0	0.2	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 141	$2,912	1.7%	0	0.2	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 196	$2,801	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 102	$2,497	2.0%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$2,423	2.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$2,378	2.1%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 85	$2,317	2.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$2,311	1.7%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 129	$2,036	1.3%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$2,026	1.8%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$1,912	2.0%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$1,747	2.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$1,674	1.6%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 89	$1,579	1.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$1,574	1.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$1,505	1.1%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 160	$1,504	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 214	$1,496	0.6%	2	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 220	$1,494	0.5%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 223	$1,459	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$1,458	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$1,425	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 121	$1,350	0.9%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 170	$1,319	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 136	$1,316	0.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 121	$1,316	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$1,313	0.6%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 369	$1,254	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$1,238	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 150	$1,214	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$1,209	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$1,206	0.5%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$1,205	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 167	$1,205	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 219	$1,201	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 221	$1,182	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 207	$1,161	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 131	$1,094	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 106	$1,060	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 84	$1,018	1.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$1,000	1.1%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$979	0.8%	2	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 117	$965	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$907	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$904	0.8%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 96	$899	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 79	$893	0.9%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$830	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 105	$804	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 79	$777	0.8%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$752	0.9%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$736	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$693	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 93	$684	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 99	$675	0.5%	1	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 105	$655	0.5%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$639	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 183	$633	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 142	$630	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$627	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 157	$627	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 145	$619	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$617	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 140	$563	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 79	$552	0.6%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$536	0.5%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$526	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 87	$507	0.5%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$488	0.6%	3	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 90	$477	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 56	$435	0.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 56	$429	0.6%	1	0.6	—
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 47	$422	0.7%	0	0.7	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$393	0.8%	1	0.8	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 48	$379	0.6%	2	0.6	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$319	0.7%	3	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 31	$283	0.7%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 24	$253	0.8%	1	1.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 24	$225	0.8%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 26	$194	0.6%	1	1.2	0.83×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/souvenir, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · highmfbenn7$1,499$4,2792.85x6d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLemo$1,499$3,0102.01x5d

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covertLemo$1,499$2,0181.35x5d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcat$1,499$1,6761.12x16h

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertLEGOO$1,499$1,6541.10x6d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLEGOO$1,499$1,5521.04x6d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedcat$1,499$1,5251.02x16h

AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertLEGOO$1,499$1,3810.92x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryLemo$1,499$1,3800.92x5d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertcat$1,499$1,3240.88x16h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedcat$1,499$2260.15x16h

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedcat$1,499$1,5251.02x16h

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertcat$1,499$9420.63x16h

AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertcat$1,499$1,3240.88x16h

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertcat$1,499$1,1690.78x16h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcat$1,499$1,6761.12x16h

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarycat$1,499$3810.25x16h

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertjohanka$1,499$3150.21x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryBen İGA$1,499$3860.26x2d

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBen İGA$1,499$4810.32x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1,499	82.98%	100
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1,499	82.93%	100
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1,499	82.90%	100
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1,499	82.91%	100
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1,499	82.92%	100
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1,499	82.93%	100
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1,499	82.91%	100
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1,499	82.95%	100
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1,499	82.92%	100
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1,499	82.90%	100
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1,499	82.99%	100
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1,499	82.93%	100
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1,499	82.96%	100
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1,499	82.90%	100
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1,499	82.91%	100
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1,499	82.91%	100
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1,499	82.99%	100
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1,499	82.94%	100
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1,499	83.00%	100
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1,499	82.90%	100
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1,499	82.90%	100

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 1.5%covert 58.8%high 2.8%legendary 2.7%classified 12.1%epic 1.6%restricted 3.0%extraordinary 7.6%Covert 1.3%rare 1.1%covert knife 3.4%Classified 4.2%best hit $4,279 (2.85x)