SpongeBob

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$12.79

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $11.77 from 74 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.72%

2,558 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.72%±11.36264 openings

7 days

89.14%±3.932,261 openings

30 days

89.72%±3.702,558 openings

since tracking started

89.72%±3.702,558 openings

81.5%93.5%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	264	93.72%±11.4	+0.3σ	odds
7d	2,261	89.14%±3.93	−1.4σ	odds
30d	2,558	89.72%±3.70	−1.2σ	odds
All	2,558	89.72%±3.70	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,558 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$135	0.1%	1	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$135	0.2%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$133	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 840	$130	1.3%	1	3.0	0.33×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$130	0.1%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$128	0.3%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$116	0.1%	2	0.3	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$115	0.2%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$89.09	0.4%	3	1.3	2.39×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 794	$86.63	0.9%	1	3.2	0.31×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 794	$71.83	0.8%	5	3.2	1.55×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 588	$70.75	1.0%	9	4.3	2.07×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 613	$59.89	0.8%	8	4.2	1.92×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$55.04	2.0%	6	10.7	0.56×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$50.90	0.1%	3	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 221	$49.70	1.9%	2	11.6	0.17×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 524	$49.18	0.8%	10	4.9	2.05×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 274	$47.52	1.5%	1	9.3	0.11×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 309	$45.80	1.3%	6	8.3	0.72×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 699	$45.51	0.6%	7	3.7	1.91×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 515	$40.47	0.7%	6	5.0	1.21×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 326	$39.67	1.0%	5	7.9	0.64×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 302	$38.88	1.1%	3	8.5	0.35×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 285	$37.71	1.1%	7	9.0	0.78×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 649	$37.02	0.5%	6	3.9	1.52×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$36.07	0.2%	3	2.0	1.52×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 364	$35.93	0.8%	4	7.0	0.57×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 980	$34.96	0.3%	4	2.6	1.53×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 232	$34.45	1.3%	8	11.0	0.73×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 225	$34.28	1.3%	8	11.4	0.70×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 237	$33.29	1.2%	10	10.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 222	$31.54	1.2%	9	11.5	0.78×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 174	$30.87	1.5%	12	14.7	0.82×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$30.65	1.7%	14	16.4	0.85×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 123	$29.58	2.0%	16	20.8	0.77×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 141	$28.19	1.7%	24	18.1	1.33×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 119	$27.57	2.0%	17	21.5	0.79×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 96	$24.77	2.2%	23	26.7	0.86×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$22.37	2.3%	28	30.6	0.91×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 82	$21.32	2.2%	33	31.1	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$19.89	2.8%	35	42.7	0.82×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$19.61	2.4%	48	37.5	1.28×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 76	$19.40	2.2%	38	33.8	1.12×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$18.52	2.4%	35	38.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$14.90	1.8%	37	36.2	1.02×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 56	$14.67	2.2%	46	45.5	1.01×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$13.13	2.3%	45	53.1	0.85×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$12.70	2.5%	43	58.5	0.74×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 86	$12.49	1.2%	35	29.8	1.17×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 64	$12.31	1.6%	29	40.1	0.72×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 136	$12.01	0.7%	53	18.8	2.83×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 102	$11.79	1.0%	28	25.1	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$11.72	1.0%	34	24.7	1.38×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$11.64	1.2%	23	31.4	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$11.35	1.1%	35	29.0	1.21×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 74	$11.10	1.3%	28	34.7	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$10.06	1.4%	49	42.3	1.16×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$9.33	1.7%	51	54.0	0.94×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 46	$8.81	1.6%	49	55.6	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$8.62	1.9%	63	66.6	0.95×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 41	$7.81	1.6%	55	62.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 49	$7.80	1.4%	67	52.4	1.28×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$7.48	1.3%	61	53.5	1.14×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 44	$7.42	1.4%	38	58.0	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$7.25	1.1%	43	47.3	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$7.12	1.4%	61	59.1	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$6.75	1.5%	89	66.2	1.34×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$6.73	1.7%	77	77.3	1.00×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 28	$6.27	1.9%	109	91.8	1.19×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 23	$6.24	2.3%	96	109.8	0.87×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$5.11	2.2%	149	128.8	1.16×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$3.63	2.1%	178	170.5	1.04×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$3.36	2.2%	285	198.6	1.44×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$3.32	2.7%	139	242.8	0.57×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/spongebob, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · LegendaryL4he$T$12.79$7.710.60x36m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedL4he$T$12.79$8.780.69x36m

Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedL4he$T$12.79$12.650.99x36m

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedL4he$T$12.79$3.320.26x36m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSavage$12.79$9.850.77x1h

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSavage$12.79$3.320.26x1h

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rareSavage$12.79$6.700.52x1h

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rareStihl$12.79$6.700.52x1h

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkAFK$12.79$22.261.74x2h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedksp$12.79$14.921.17x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$12.79	92.05%	74
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$12.79	92.05%	74
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$12.79	92.07%	74
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$12.79	92.04%	74
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$12.79	92.05%	74
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$12.79	92.05%	74
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$12.79	92.01%	74
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$12.79	92.03%	74
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$12.79	92.08%	74
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$12.79	92.02%	74
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$12.79	92.03%	74
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$12.79	92.07%	74
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$12.79	92.09%	74
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$12.79	92.09%	74
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$12.79	92.00%	74
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$12.79	92.01%	74
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$12.79	92.03%	74
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$12.79	92.06%	74
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$12.79	92.07%	74

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.1%red 2.0%Covert 0.5%Ancient 1.5%#d32ee6 4.5%Classified 0.6%classified 45.2%pink 23.7%Legendary 9.6%restricted 1.0%rare 3.0%#d32ce6 4.3%best hit —