Usp-s

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.51

Advertised RTP

92.04%

EV $2.31 from 133 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.78%

2,151 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.15%±22.16294 openings

7 days

99.71%±9.191,757 openings

30 days

101.78%±8.282,151 openings

since tracking started

101.78%±8.282,151 openings

70.5%93.2%116.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.50% – 110.07%, 2,151 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	294	93.15%±22.2	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,757	99.71%±9.19	+1.6σ	odds
30d	2,151	101.78%±8.28	+2.3σ	odds
All	2,151	101.78%±8.28	+2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values133 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,151 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$120	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$117	0.7%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$116	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$115	1.0%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$115	0.8%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$108	0.5%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$67.69	0.6%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$67.55	0.5%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$66.41	0.4%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$57.58	0.3%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$57.55	0.5%	3	0.4	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$54.35	0.5%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 8,333	$48.24	0.3%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$47.96	0.4%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$47.92	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,556	$45.29	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,882	$43.88	0.3%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 8,333	$43.22	0.2%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,556	$42.09	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$38.69	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$38.33	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$37.45	0.3%	2	0.4	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$35.75	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$35.09	0.2%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$33.71	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$33.41	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$32.09	0.2%	2	0.3	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$32.05	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,091	$31.98	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 10,000	$31.54	0.1%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$30.08	0.2%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,000	$27.91	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 8,333	$27.74	0.1%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$26.72	0.2%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 9,091	$26.40	0.1%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$25.62	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 5,882	$23.32	0.2%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$22.49	0.2%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,562	$22.37	0.6%	1	1.4	0.73×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,882	$21.38	0.2%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 7,692	$21.32	0.1%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$17.50	0.2%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 685	$16.44	1.0%	2	3.1	0.64×
USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,091	$14.05	0.1%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 877	$13.70	0.7%	1	2.5	0.41×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 6,667	$13.30	0.1%	3	0.3	—
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 781	$13.15	0.7%	3	2.8	1.09×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 510	$11.25	1.0%	1	4.2	0.24×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 787	$11.10	0.6%	3	2.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 625	$9.45	0.7%	6	3.4	1.74×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 457	$9.44	0.9%	2	4.7	0.42×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,703	$9.42	0.2%	3	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 257	$9.18	1.5%	5	8.4	0.60×
USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 7,692	$9.15	0.1%	4	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$8.96	0.1%	5	0.3	—
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 526	$8.88	0.7%	8	4.1	1.96×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 459	$8.70	0.8%	8	4.7	1.71×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 769	$8.38	0.5%	7	2.8	2.50×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 389	$8.31	0.9%	1	5.5	0.18×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 324	$7.94	1.1%	4	6.6	0.60×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 719	$7.70	0.5%	5	3.0	1.67×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 565	$7.45	0.6%	7	3.8	1.84×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 246	$7.10	1.2%	5	8.7	0.57×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 227	$7.10	1.4%	17	9.5	1.80×
USP-S \| Stainless (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 422	$6.87	0.7%	10	5.1	1.96×
USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 380	$6.61	0.8%	13	5.7	2.30×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 222	$6.47	1.3%	10	9.7	1.03×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 194	$6.20	1.4%	14	11.1	1.26×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 126	$5.84	2.0%	12	17.1	0.70×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 131	$5.12	1.7%	13	16.5	0.79×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$5.11	2.0%	25	19.2	1.30×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 93	$4.92	2.3%	20	23.2	0.86×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 99	$4.79	2.1%	26	21.8	1.19×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 134	$4.10	1.3%	17	16.1	1.06×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 139	$4.08	1.3%	25	15.5	1.61×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 146	$3.93	1.2%	27	14.8	1.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$3.89	1.7%	22	22.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 176	$3.79	0.9%	18	12.2	1.47×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 148	$3.72	1.1%	17	14.5	1.17×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 159	$3.66	1.0%	10	13.5	0.74×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 138	$3.57	1.1%	12	15.6	0.77×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 132	$3.49	1.1%	16	16.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 107	$3.36	1.4%	21	20.1	1.05×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 133	$3.12	1.0%	20	16.2	1.24×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 91	$3.07	1.5%	22	23.7	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 97	$3.07	1.4%	20	22.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 100	$3.05	1.3%	21	21.6	0.97×
USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 65	$2.93	1.9%	23	32.9	0.70×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 120	$2.89	1.0%	28	18.0	1.56×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$2.64	1.6%	23	30.2	0.76×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 60	$2.63	1.9%	37	36.1	1.02×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 52	$2.31	1.9%	51	41.0	1.24×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$2.26	2.0%	50	43.6	1.15×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$2.14	1.7%	65	39.0	1.66×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 43	$2.12	2.1%	61	50.1	1.22×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 64	$2.05	1.4%	32	33.5	0.96×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$1.90	1.6%	46	40.9	1.12×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$1.80	1.6%	57	42.9	1.33×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$1.66	1.7%	49	49.8	0.98×
USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$1.48	1.6%	44	54.4	0.81×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 39	$1.40	1.5%	63	54.7	1.15×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$1.38	1.6%	60	56.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$1.30	1.4%	55	53.6	1.03×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 55	$1.16	0.9%	60	38.8	1.55×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 49	$1.07	0.9%	46	43.7	1.05×
USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 47	$1.07	1.0%	49	45.9	1.07×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 43	$0.94	1.0%	43	50.2	0.86×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$0.87	0.8%	57	47.3	1.21×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 58	$0.81	0.6%	29	37.1	0.78×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$0.80	0.6%	25	37.6	0.67×
USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 57	$0.80	0.6%	39	37.7	1.04×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 83	$0.77	0.4%	26	25.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$0.77	0.4%	16	23.8	0.67×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$0.76	0.3%	22	19.3	1.14×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 99	$0.76	0.3%	22	21.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 98	$0.76	0.3%	22	21.9	1.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 169	$0.75	0.2%	14	12.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$0.72	0.3%	31	19.4	1.60×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 121	$0.70	0.2%	35	17.7	1.97×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$0.68	0.3%	31	24.8	1.25×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$0.67	0.4%	13	33.0	0.39×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$0.61	0.4%	37	29.1	1.27×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$0.57	0.4%	30	36.1	0.83×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$0.53	0.4%	47	35.4	1.33×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 47	$0.50	0.5%	39	46.2	0.84×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 54	$0.46	0.4%	52	39.9	1.30×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 56	$0.36	0.3%	29	38.4	0.75×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 55	$0.35	0.3%	63	39.2	1.61×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 47	$0.21	0.2%	0	46.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 52	$0.20	0.2%	0	41.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 78	$0.16	0.1%	0	27.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 69	$0.14	0.1%	0	31.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 63	$0.14	0.1%	0	34.0	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/usp, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecNonesy$2.51$2.270.90x15m

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareNonesy$2.51$2.270.90x15m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNonesy$2.51$0.760.30x15m

USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specNonesy$2.51$4.781.90x15m

USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restrictedNonesy$2.51$5.102.03x21m

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareNonesy$2.51$3.111.24x21m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violetNonesy$2.51$3.361.34x21m

USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)weapon · mil specNonesy$2.51$1.380.55x21m

USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedNonesy$2.51$3.701.47x21m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalNonesy$2.51$0.940.37x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.51	92.04%	133
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.51	92.09%	133
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.51	92.02%	133
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.51	92.09%	133
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.51	92.10%	133
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.51	92.07%	133
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.51	92.06%	133
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.51	92.05%	133
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.51	92.05%	133
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.51	92.06%	133
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.51	92.07%	133
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.51	92.07%	133
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.51	92.04%	133
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.51	92.07%	133
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.51	92.00%	133

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%mil spec 26.6%classified 2.2%restricted 21.5%Rare 5.3%#d32ee6 0.0%Legendary 0.1%industrial 4.5%red 0.0%Restricted 1.6%milspec 9.8%Mythical 3.4%pink 0.1%Industrial Grade 0.0%#4b69ff 6.4%Mil Spec Grade 2.6%Classified 0.6%#8847ff 2.3%violet 4.4%blue 5.7%#87c7ff 2.7%best hit —