Blue

A case on GGDROP (vip-color), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$95.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $87.40 from 70 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.43%

513 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

94.84%±16.33470 openings

30 days

95.43%±15.70513 openings

since tracking started

95.43%±15.70513 openings

12.0%76.8%141.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	76.81%±64.0	—	odds
7d	470	94.84%±16.3	+0.3σ	odds
30d	513	95.43%±15.7	+0.4σ	odds
All	513	95.43%±15.7	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 513 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$8,734	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$7,268	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$2,740	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$2,036	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$2,026	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$1,316	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$1,161	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 840	$1,014	1.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,762	$701	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$653	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 450	$624	1.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$581	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 402	$557	1.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · #ffd700 · Phase 2	1 in 347	$491	1.6%	2	1.5	1.35×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 418	$488	1.3%	3	1.2	2.45×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$393	0.9%	3	1.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,449	$371	0.3%	2	0.4	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 332	$335	1.2%	6	1.5	3.89×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 194	$327	1.9%	1	2.6	0.38×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 236	$319	1.5%	3	2.2	1.38×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 179	$318	2.0%	1	2.9	0.35×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 293	$280	1.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 156	$266	1.9%	3	3.3	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 152	$244	1.8%	3	3.4	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$231	2.3%	4	4.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 126	$229	2.1%	1	4.1	0.25×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 102	$219	2.5%	6	5.0	1.19×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 90	$176	2.2%	7	5.7	1.23×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 85	$171	2.3%	4	6.1	0.66×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 70	$156	2.6%	6	7.4	0.81×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 63	$156	2.9%	12	8.2	1.46×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 142	$149	1.2%	9	3.6	2.49×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$146	1.8%	5	5.6	0.89×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 168	$144	1.0%	2	3.1	0.65×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 96	$140	1.7%	1	5.4	0.19×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 123	$128	1.2%	11	4.2	2.63×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 92	$126	1.6%	10	5.6	1.80×
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 81	$118	1.7%	7	6.3	1.11×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 75	$117	1.8%	12	6.8	1.75×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 84	$110	1.5%	9	6.1	1.48×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 60	$106	2.0%	3	8.6	0.35×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$103	1.3%	6	5.6	1.07×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$103	1.4%	5	6.2	0.81×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 62	$93.41	1.7%	9	8.3	1.09×
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 78	$93.39	1.4%	6	6.6	0.91×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 83	$92.63	1.3%	5	6.2	0.81×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 62	$85.67	1.6%	11	8.3	1.33×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$83.78	1.2%	7	6.2	1.14×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$83.34	1.5%	11	8.2	1.34×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$79.82	1.7%	10	9.3	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 64	$76.72	1.4%	7	8.1	0.87×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 53	$75.46	1.6%	9	9.6	0.93×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 44	$71.83	1.9%	10	11.7	0.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 39	$65.53	1.9%	11	13.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 36	$56.55	1.8%	14	14.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 30	$51.87	2.0%	10	17.0	0.59×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$45.99	1.9%	11	18.4	0.60×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$43.64	1.8%	12	18.3	0.66×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$41.49	1.4%	14	15.1	0.93×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$38.92	1.3%	10	14.9	0.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 44	$38.11	1.0%	18	11.6	1.56×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 44	$37.32	1.0%	13	11.7	1.11×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 42	$36.56	1.0%	11	12.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 41	$36.32	1.0%	15	12.4	1.21×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 34	$33.73	1.1%	17	15.1	1.13×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 29	$31.05	1.2%	17	17.8	0.95×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 25	$30.96	1.4%	32	20.4	1.57×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$28.78	1.6%	22	25.5	0.86×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$26.63	1.7%	27	27.9	0.97×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$25.07	1.8%	24	31.7	0.76×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vip-blue, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertGybuLe$95.00$2,06621.74x1d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertEnr!en$95.00$6787.13x4d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPaBou$95.00$5946.26x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedEnr!en$95.00$83.360.88x6h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMiler$95.00$38.160.40x7h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMiler$95.00$1261.33x7h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKilovi$95.00$37.200.39x8h

M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancientcat$95.00$30.070.32x16h

P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcat$95.00$26.540.28x16h

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedcat$95.00$3353.53x16h

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedcat$95.00$30.650.32x16h

P250 | Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classifiedcat$95.00$40.740.43x16h

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarycat$95.00$1571.65x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$95.00	92.10%	70
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$95.00	92.09%	70
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$95.00	92.01%	70
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$95.00	92.06%	70
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$95.00	91.99%	70
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$95.00	92.01%	70
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$95.00	92.01%	70
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$95.00	92.10%	70
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$95.00	92.09%	70
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$95.00	92.05%	70
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$95.00	92.03%	70
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$95.00	92.00%	70
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$95.00	92.10%	70
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$95.00	92.09%	70
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$95.00	92.08%	70
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$95.00	92.02%	70
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$95.00	92.09%	70

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.2%classified 38.9%extraordinary 9.1%restricted 7.5%#ffd700 0.3%rare 1.0%Covert 2.3%gold 1.6%#4b69ff 1.2%mil spec 1.3%#eb4b4b 1.6%red 5.2%Legendary 2.8%pink 3.6%Restricted 3.5%Ancient 4.0%best hit $2,066 (21.74x)