Red

A case on GGDROP (vip-color), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$65.00

Advertised RTP

92.06%

EV $59.84 from 86 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.83%

1,018 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83 openings · below min

7 days

90.71%±15.19873 openings

30 days

89.83%±14.751,018 openings

since tracking started

89.83%±14.751,018 openings

51.0%85.8%120.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	83	85.87%±34.2	—	odds
7d	873	90.71%±15.2	−0.2σ	odds
30d	1,018	89.83%±14.8	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,018	89.83%±14.8	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values86 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,018 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 5,263	$5,195	1.6%	0	0.2	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$3,017	1.0%	0	0.2	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$2,801	0.8%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$1,674	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$1,622	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,425	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,556	$1,265	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$1,095	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$602	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$575	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 855	$547	1.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$531	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$526	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$491	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,692	$435	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 283	$429	2.5%	2	3.6	0.56×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$340	0.1%	3	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 289	$266	1.5%	0	3.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 214	$256	2.0%	5	4.8	1.05×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 207	$253	2.0%	5	4.9	1.02×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 120	$224	3.1%	6	8.5	0.71×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 148	$168	1.9%	7	6.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 129	$141	1.8%	7	7.9	0.89×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 77	$140	3.0%	6	13.1	0.46×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 70	$138	3.3%	9	14.5	0.62×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$133	1.8%	7	8.3	0.84×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 273	$129	0.8%	6	3.7	1.61×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 177	$128	1.2%	8	5.7	1.39×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 228	$124	0.9%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 199	$121	1.0%	5	5.1	0.98×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 242	$117	0.8%	2	4.2	0.47×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 111	$113	1.7%	3	9.1	0.33×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 170	$110	1.1%	8	6.0	1.34×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 161	$109	1.1%	5	6.3	0.79×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 160	$104	1.1%	6	6.4	0.94×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 258	$101	0.7%	13	3.9	3.30×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 165	$99.82	1.0%	12	6.2	1.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 141	$96.77	1.1%	10	7.2	1.39×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 326	$96.13	0.5%	7	3.1	2.24×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 193	$96.13	0.8%	9	5.3	1.71×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 157	$90.46	1.0%	10	6.5	1.55×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 128	$88.84	1.2%	7	8.0	0.88×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 149	$84.16	0.9%	6	6.8	0.88×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 116	$83.15	1.2%	7	8.8	0.80×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$80.08	1.3%	11	10.2	1.08×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$80.07	1.5%	9	11.0	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 137	$78.81	1.0%	5	7.5	0.67×
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 130	$74.86	1.0%	7	7.8	0.90×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$73.80	1.2%	8	10.0	0.80×
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 98	$70.73	1.2%	7	10.4	0.67×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 90	$68.40	1.3%	15	11.3	1.33×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 92	$68.29	1.2%	9	11.1	0.81×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$67.55	1.3%	14	11.5	1.22×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$62.77	1.5%	11	14.2	0.78×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$61.26	1.1%	16	11.2	1.43×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$59.89	1.5%	20	14.8	1.35×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$55.47	1.6%	20	17.6	1.14×
eSports 2013 Casecontainer · base	1 in 71	$52.50	1.2%	18	14.4	1.25×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$49.06	1.3%	17	16.0	1.07×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$48.64	1.4%	21	17.9	1.17×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$47.65	1.3%	13	16.6	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$47.52	1.1%	13	14.1	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$45.90	0.8%	10	10.4	0.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$41.65	0.8%	17	11.6	1.47×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 70	$41.39	1.0%	16	14.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 60	$37.98	1.1%	11	17.1	0.64×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$37.04	1.1%	12	17.8	0.68×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$36.82	0.7%	5	12.3	0.41×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 69	$36.33	0.9%	15	14.7	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$35.79	0.7%	10	11.6	0.86×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 109	$35.54	0.5%	11	9.3	1.18×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$35.13	0.7%	10	12.1	0.83×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 74	$34.00	0.8%	8	13.7	0.59×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 66	$33.14	0.8%	16	15.3	1.04×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$30.16	0.9%	21	17.6	1.20×
Sticker \| Hobbit (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker	1 in 47	$29.02	1.0%	17	21.8	0.78×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 41	$28.66	1.2%	36	24.6	1.46×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$28.50	1.2%	33	26.5	1.24×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$27.48	1.1%	22	24.3	0.90×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$27.13	1.2%	26	26.1	1.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$26.86	1.3%	35	29.8	1.18×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 29	$26.74	1.6%	48	35.4	1.36×
Health Pinpin · remarkable	1 in 24	$24.26	1.7%	36	42.6	0.85×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 19	$22.78	2.0%	42	52.5	0.80×
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$22.45	2.3%	76	63.5	1.20×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$21.83	2.8%	64	78.7	0.81×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vip-red, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Negev | Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedGu1lty$65.00$2,33135.86x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiednitro$65.00$1,45722.42x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedE.Ş$65.00$28.710.44x24m

XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classifiedno4ort$65.00$21.710.33x1h

★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertksp$65.00$95.451.47x1h

P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTau$65.00$48.470.75x2h

AK-47 | Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedTau$65.00$55.200.85x2h

AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covertTau$65.00$47.470.73x2h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$65.00$28.500.44x3h

Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specEnr!en$65.00$90.481.39x4h

MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil specEnr!en$65.00$2253.45x5h

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specEnr!en$65.00$99.851.54x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$65.00	92.06%	86
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$65.00	92.04%	86
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$65.00	92.02%	86
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$65.00	92.07%	86
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$65.00	92.04%	86
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$65.00	92.03%	86
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$65.00	92.07%	86
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$65.00	92.03%	86
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$65.00	92.04%	86
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$65.00	92.01%	86
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$65.00	92.09%	86
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$65.00	92.07%	86
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$65.00	92.08%	86
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$65.00	92.10%	86
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$65.00	92.00%	86
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$65.00	92.09%	86
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$65.00	92.08%	86
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$65.00	92.10%	86
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$65.00	92.03%	86

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%classified 32.4%extraordinary 1.1%mil spec 5.3%restricted 11.0%covert 27.2%covert knife 0.4%gold 0.6%sunny 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.8%Industrial Grade 0.7%industrial 1.8%base 1.4%Ancient 1.7%other 3.5%Restricted 1.5%Covert 2.4%Legendary 3.5%remarkable 4.2%best hit $2,331 (35.86x)