Yellow

A case on GGDROP (vip-color), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$85.85

Advertised RTP

92.07%

EV $79.04 from 73 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.60%

488 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

32 openings · below min

7 days

86.48%±13.64369 openings

30 days

92.60%±11.92488 openings

since tracking started

92.60%±11.92488 openings

72.0%129.8%187.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	32	141.89%±45.0	—	odds
7d	369	86.48%±13.6	−0.8σ	odds
30d	488	92.60%±11.9	+0.1σ	odds
All	488	92.60%±11.9	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values73 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 488 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary	1 in 8,333	$2,123	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 704	$1,579	2.8%	2	0.7	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 690	$1,351	2.5%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$1,254	1.6%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$904	0.5%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 448	$684	1.9%	1	1.1	0.92×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 309	$402	1.6%	1	1.6	0.63×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 725	$327	0.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 135	$305	2.9%	0	3.6	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 121	$294	3.1%	2	4.0	0.49×
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 282	$276	1.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 246	$272	1.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 253	$250	1.3%	2	1.9	1.03×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 234	$249	1.3%	1	2.1	0.48×
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 253	$246	1.2%	1	1.9	0.52×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 208	$223	1.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 338	$209	0.8%	2	1.4	1.38×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$206	1.5%	3	2.8	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 173	$204	1.5%	2	2.8	0.71×
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 229	$200	1.1%	2	2.1	0.94×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 236	$198	1.1%	4	2.1	1.94×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 281	$198	0.9%	3	1.7	1.73×
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 463	$196	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 177	$193	1.4%	4	2.8	1.45×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 187	$189	1.3%	5	2.6	1.91×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 173	$172	1.3%	2	2.8	0.71×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 122	$169	1.8%	3	4.0	0.75×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 116	$157	1.7%	5	4.2	1.19×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 89	$149	2.1%	2	5.5	0.36×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 99	$142	1.8%	7	5.0	1.41×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$140	2.3%	8	6.3	1.26×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 98	$138	1.8%	6	5.0	1.20×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$115	1.9%	3	6.3	0.48×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 76	$114	1.9%	7	6.4	1.09×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$111	2.2%	10	7.6	1.31×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 58	$109	2.4%	4	8.4	0.48×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$101	1.2%	2	4.4	0.45×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$98.58	1.2%	7	4.8	1.47×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 66	$97.89	1.9%	10	7.4	1.36×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$96.75	1.8%	5	7.2	0.70×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$88.17	1.4%	12	6.2	1.92×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 73	$80.25	1.4%	6	6.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 56	$75.16	1.7%	11	8.8	1.25×
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$74.34	2.0%	12	10.5	1.14×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 47	$71.02	1.9%	9	10.4	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$67.95	1.4%	10	7.8	1.29×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$67.38	1.2%	11	6.8	1.61×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 60	$62.46	1.3%	10	8.1	1.23×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 53	$57.39	1.4%	4	9.2	0.44×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$55.79	1.2%	10	8.2	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$55.40	1.4%	11	9.8	1.12×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$54.32	1.4%	5	9.7	0.52×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 72	$52.49	0.9%	11	6.8	1.62×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$43.89	0.8%	7	7.4	0.94×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$43.37	1.0%	10	9.0	1.12×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 48	$40.80	1.1%	10	10.3	0.97×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 46	$40.54	1.1%	8	10.6	0.76×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$40.25	0.5%	2	4.9	0.41×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 88	$39.89	0.6%	4	5.6	0.72×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$39.67	0.5%	5	4.9	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$39.49	0.5%	3	4.6	0.65×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 76	$38.65	0.6%	4	6.5	0.62×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 76	$38.18	0.6%	2	6.4	0.31×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$37.71	0.8%	9	7.8	1.16×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$35.64	0.9%	7	9.6	0.73×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$33.82	1.0%	17	11.0	1.54×
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$30.69	1.1%	14	13.5	1.04×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$30.10	1.3%	20	17.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$29.31	1.3%	20	17.6	1.13×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$20.87	1.1%	31	20.8	1.49×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 22	$19.97	1.1%	16	22.0	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$19.57	1.3%	25	26.4	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$14.48	1.2%	33	33.2	0.99×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vip-yellow, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCutăre$cu$85.85$2,10124.47x8d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBen İGA$85.85$1,58418.46x19h

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertLemo$85.85$1,27714.87x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedrhythmo-plastics$85.85$97311.34x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareHobbit$85.85$6837.96x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryEnr!en$85.85$40.550.47x6h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specArabesqaa$85.85$19.570.23x7h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertArabesqaa$85.85$62.480.73x7h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil specArabesqaa$85.85$57.930.67x7h

MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertArabesqaa$85.85$39.520.46x7h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covertArabesqaa$85.85$35.760.42x7h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertArabesqaa$85.85$1091.27x7h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertArabesqaa$85.85$33.850.39x7h

★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryKilovi$85.85$52.650.61x8h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertL4he$T$85.85$75.150.88x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$85.85	92.07%	73
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$85.85	92.01%	73
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$85.85	91.99%	73
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$85.85	92.06%	73
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$85.85	92.08%	73
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$85.85	91.99%	73
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$85.85	92.04%	73
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$85.85	92.00%	73
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$85.85	92.05%	73

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 36.5%restricted 13.0%rare 0.8%Classified 0.9%classified 13.8%#d32ee6 5.3%pink 3.2%extraordinary 11.1%mil spec 14.1%#d32ce6 1.3%best hit $2,101 (24.47x)