Well Worn

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$379.39

Advertised RTP

83.08%

EV $315.20 from 101 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.98%

94 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

71 openings · below min

30 days

94 openings · below min

since tracking started

94 openings · below min

-0.5%96.3%193.0%

Small sample. 94 openings and 20.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	40.72%±151.5	—	odds
7d	71	67.97%±31.4	—	odds
30d	94	72.98%±24.6	—	odds
All	94	72.98%±24.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values101 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 465	$13.2K	9.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 42	$1,070	8.1%	0	2.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 43	$1,060	7.9%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 44	$1,022	7.4%	2	2.1	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 45	$643	4.5%	2	2.1	0.96×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$613	2.9%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 54	$581	3.4%	2	1.7	1.16×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$536	3.8%	2	2.1	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$501	1.6%	0	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$488	1.6%	0	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$488	1.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 130	$480	1.2%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 176	$462	0.8%	4	0.5	—
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 186	$452	0.8%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 150	$445	0.9%	3	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$412	1.1%	2	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 150	$411	0.9%	0	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 148	$410	0.9%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 156	$401	0.8%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 282	$399	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 232	$393	0.5%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 188	$387	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 206	$385	0.6%	2	0.5	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 174	$384	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$366	0.6%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 157	$363	0.7%	3	0.6	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 132	$348	0.8%	1	0.7	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$333	1.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 130	$327	0.8%	1	0.7	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$319	0.9%	1	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 128	$315	0.8%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 165	$315	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$309	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 195	$309	0.5%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 153	$300	0.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 147	$288	0.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 169	$277	0.5%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$277	0.8%	0	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 124	$276	0.7%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 156	$270	0.5%	3	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 220	$265	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 178	$264	0.5%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$253	0.5%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 161	$249	0.5%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$246	0.5%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 143	$245	0.5%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 209	$242	0.4%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 218	$237	0.3%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 223	$233	0.3%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 247	$232	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 196	$230	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 270	$225	0.3%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 246	$224	0.3%	2	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 222	$222	0.3%	0	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 213	$222	0.3%	3	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 246	$218	0.3%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 219	$217	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 203	$212	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 142	$208	0.5%	0	0.7	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 145	$207	0.5%	1	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 149	$204	0.4%	1	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 169	$203	0.4%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$196	0.4%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$193	0.3%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 146	$193	0.4%	2	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 130	$192	0.5%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$191	0.3%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 151	$189	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 122	$181	0.5%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$171	0.6%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 84	$169	0.6%	1	1.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 74	$165	0.7%	1	1.3	0.79×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 78	$155	0.6%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 96	$154	0.5%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 86	$148	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$144	0.6%	1	1.1	0.88×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$142	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 86	$133	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 103	$132	0.4%	0	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 110	$131	0.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 97	$129	0.4%	2	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$124	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 129	$123	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 117	$122	0.3%	0	0.8	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 105	$120	0.4%	1	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$117	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 110	$113	0.3%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$108	0.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$107	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 72	$103	0.5%	2	1.3	1.53×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$100	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 80	$98.21	0.4%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 66	$96.42	0.5%	1	1.4	0.71×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 64	$94.13	0.5%	3	1.5	2.03×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 57	$87.20	0.5%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 49	$84.00	0.5%	2	1.9	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 41	$75.45	0.6%	4	2.3	1.74×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 35	$75.30	0.7%	4	2.7	1.49×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 34	$75.03	0.7%	1	2.8	0.36×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 28	$73.35	0.8%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 28	$65.33	0.7%	1	3.4	0.29×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/well-worn, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epichhunter$379$1,2783.37x2d

★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertsuutei tsai$379$1,0442.75x7d

★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertsercantall$379$1,0272.71x1d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeLemo$379$6371.68x6d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertsercantall$379$5801.53x1d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covertkaLu.$379$5561.47x7d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert✮benjitreskk̤̮✮$379$5481.44x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarycat$379$1190.31x16h

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarycat$379$1280.34x16h

★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertKilovi$379$75.080.20x19h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeLemo$379$1720.45x21h

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertLemo$379$2770.73x21h

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendaryisfab.cs$379$2460.65x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifesuutei tsai$379$96.500.25x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertsyn$379$3680.97x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancientsercantall$379$1660.44x1d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedsercantall$379$2280.60x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$379	83.08%	101
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$379	83.05%	101
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$379	83.08%	101
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$379	83.00%	101
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$379	83.05%	101
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$379	82.96%	101
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$379	82.93%	101
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$379	83.05%	101
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$379	83.06%	101
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$379	83.03%	101
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$379	83.00%	101
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$379	83.01%	101
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$379	82.99%	101
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$379	83.01%	101
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$379	82.99%	101
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$379	83.00%	101
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$379	82.92%	101
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$379	82.92%	101
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$379	82.93%	101
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$379	82.90%	101
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$379	82.96%	101
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$379	82.91%	101
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$379	82.91%	101
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$379	82.91%	101
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$379	83.00%	101
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$379	82.93%	101
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$379	82.93%	101
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$379	82.93%	101
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$379	82.90%	101
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$379	82.91%	101

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 4.7%Classified 5.3%epic 2.3%covert 46.5%covert knife 9.4%classified 8.5%extraordinary 6.9%Legendary 1.2%#EB4B4B 0.5%Extraordinary 1.3%#d32ee6 0.7%gold 0.8%Ancient 1.4%sunny 3.0%#eb4b4b 1.2%Covert 3.0%red 3.5%best hit $1,278 (3.37x)