Catposting

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$35.00

Advertised RTP

88.02%

EV $30.81 from 167 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.18%

57 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

54 openings · below min

30 days

57 openings · below min

since tracking started

57 openings · below min

6.5%88.3%170.0%

Small sample. 57 openings and 11.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	88.36%±81.1	—	odds
7d	54	91.98%±29.8	—	odds
30d	57	90.18%±29.0	—	odds
All	57	90.18%±29.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values167 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$561	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$546	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$531	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$494	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$438	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 4,167	$438	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,167	$431	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 4,167	$424	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$412	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$409	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,846	$384	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$324	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$309	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$302	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 2,941	$299	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$297	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$293	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,857	$289	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$273	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$267	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$266	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$263	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,564	$260	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$241	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$238	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$235	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,273	$232	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,222	$229	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$221	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$212	0.3%	1	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 2,041	$207	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,961	$202	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$194	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$192	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,852	$191	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$178	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,724	$176	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 1,695	$173	0.3%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$158	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$152	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$150	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 1,449	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,408	$145	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$141	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$141	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,333	$138	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$136	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$131	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$131	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,282	$130	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,250	$128	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$122	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$121	0.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,176	$121	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$118	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$114	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$113	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$112	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,087	$111	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$111	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,075	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,020	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$103	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$102	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$102	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 990	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 980	$100	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$98.06	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 943	$95.95	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 943	$95.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 935	$95.68	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 870	$88.72	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 855	$86.95	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 855	$86.84	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$86.72	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 847	$86.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 813	$83.14	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 806	$82.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 800	$81.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 800	$81.60	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 794	$80.80	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 781	$80.33	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 775	$79.26	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 758	$77.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$76.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$75.37	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 725	$74.03	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 714	$72.83	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 714	$72.59	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 694	$70.91	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 685	$69.71	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$67.94	0.3%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 662	$67.91	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 645	$66.21	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 645	$66.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 645	$65.85	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 633	$64.34	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 629	$64.19	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 621	$63.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 617	$62.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 602	$61.33	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 602	$61.30	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 599	$61.12	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 595	$60.71	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 581	$59.34	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 546	$55.85	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 543	$55.52	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 521	$53.32	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 493	$50.30	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 488	$49.67	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 474	$48.57	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 474	$48.53	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 472	$48.26	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 469	$47.97	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 469	$47.88	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 452	$46.23	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 439	$44.87	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 439	$44.82	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 435	$44.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 433	$44.08	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 431	$44.05	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 431	$43.96	0.3%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 420	$42.92	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 413	$42.25	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 413	$42.15	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 410	$41.82	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 410	$41.74	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 400	$40.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 395	$40.40	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 379	$38.77	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 375	$38.24	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 364	$37.23	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 352	$36.06	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 350	$35.73	0.3%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$35.65	0.3%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 347	$35.50	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 345	$35.28	0.3%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 322	$32.89	0.3%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 306	$31.27	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 302	$30.83	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 45	$30.68	2.2%	1	1.3	0.78×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 44	$29.70	2.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$29.64	2.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$29.60	2.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$29.47	2.2%	1	1.3	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$28.87	2.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$28.77	2.2%	2	1.4	1.47×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$28.52	2.2%	1	1.4	0.73×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 42	$28.48	2.2%	1	1.4	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 40	$26.66	2.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$26.16	2.2%	1	1.5	0.67×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 37	$25.30	2.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 34	$23.20	2.2%	4	1.7	2.37×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 29	$19.52	2.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$18.59	2.2%	3	2.1	1.42×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$18.20	2.2%	2	2.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 26	$17.24	2.2%	3	2.3	1.32×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$16.96	2.2%	5	2.3	2.17×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 23	$15.75	2.2%	4	2.5	1.61×
P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 21	$14.12	2.2%	3	2.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$13.27	2.2%	4	2.9	1.36×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$11.92	2.2%	1	3.3	0.30×
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$11.44	2.2%	4	3.4	1.17×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 16	$10.73	2.2%	2	3.6	0.55×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/catposting, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

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StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkronyii$35.00$15.750.45x6h

M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · redkronyii$35.00$35.731.02x6h

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covertkronyii$35.00$67.651.93x6h

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientPhortus$35.00$35.281.01x10h

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedGLP$35.00$16.740.48x11h

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedjendrula$35.00$15.750.45x17h

Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedjendrula$35.00$29.570.84x17h

P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)weapon · violetLight_And_Dark$35.00$18.200.52x1d

StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertSteece$35.00$53.321.52x1d

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedPhortus$35.00$28.470.81x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$35.00	88.02%	167
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$35.00	87.99%	167
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$35.00	88.00%	167
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC	$35.00	87.99%	167
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$35.00	87.99%	167
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$35.00	88.00%	167
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$35.00	88.00%	167
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$35.00	87.98%	167
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$35.00	88.02%	167
4 Nov, 04:57 UTC	$35.00	87.98%	167

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.2%covert knife 0.1%classified 29.9%sunny 0.0%Ancient 1.0%Legendary 11.1%#eb4b4b 0.2%red 5.6%rare 1.2%restricted 21.2%epic 0.1%Covert 0.4%violet 7.5%Classified 0.2%uncommon 2.5%pink 0.3%Restricted 6.3%Mythical 4.9%best hit —